Soybeans At Technical Support
Jan 11, 2018
Yesterdays Close: March corn futures finished up ¼ of a cent, trading in a range of 2 cents on the day. Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 2,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 437,800 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 300,000-700,000 metric tons; last week’s report came in at 101,198 metric tons. Yesterdays ethanol report showed another reduction in ethanol production, the fourth in the last five weeks. Ethanol production came in at 996,000 barrels per day, this was down from last weeks 1,032,000 barrels per day. CONAB released their updates for Brazils corn crop, they have it at 92.3mmt, this is up .1mmt from last month. Trade estimates are starting to circulate which is ramping up the anticipation of Fridays USDA report, arguably the biggest report of the year. The headline number will be yields, but the valuable nuggets will be in the ending stocks data. Corn yield estimates are ranging from 173.7-176.4 with the average estimate at 175.2. Trade estimates for US quarterly stocks are ranging from 12.23-12.68 billion bushels with the average estimate at 12.41 billion bushels. US ending stocks estimates are ranging from 2.26-2.52 billion bushels with the average estimate at 2.44 billion bushels.
Technicals: Yesterdays trade posted an “inside day”, where prices were contained with the previous days range. 350 looks to be the magnet as we head into Fridays USDA report. First technical resistance comes in at 353 ¼, this represents the 50-day moving average. A break and close above could open the door for short covering from the funds, the next objective would be....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterdays Close: March soybeans closed 8 ¾ cents lower yesterday, trading in a range of 11 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 9,000 contracts on the session.
Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 607,400 metric tons, this compares with the expected range from 500,000-900,000 metric tons; last week’s report came in at 553,986 metric tons. There was a sale of 260,000 metric tons yesterday to an unknown destination. CONAB released estimates for Brazils crop, that came in at 110.4mmt, this is up 1.2mmt from last month. Market participants continue to gear up for Fridays USDA report which is arguably one of if not the biggest report of the year. Yield numbers will be the headline number, but ending and quarterly stocks will be the more significant numbers. Quarterly stocks estimates range from 2.96-3.31 billion bushels with the average coming in at 3.19 billion bushels. US Ending stocks estimated range is from .425-.595 billion bushels with the average of .445 billion bushels.
Technicals: The market took a turn for the worst yesterday but found support in our support pocket from 950-952 ¼; as mentioned yesterday, this is the pocket to look at using futures. Prior to that the market was in “No mans land” and we were using options to get some exposure. The bulls need to defend this pocket, a break and close below opens the door to a run towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterdays Close: Wheat futures finished the day up 2 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 3 ½ cents for the session. Funds were estimated buyers of 2,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at a pathetic 71,500 metric tons, this compares with estimates from 250,000-500,000 metric tons; last weeks report came in at 130,963 metric tons. Friday’s USDA report should put a little extra volatility into the market. US quarterly stocks estimates range from 1.80 billion bushels to 1.91 billion bushels with the average at 1.85 billion bushels. US ending stocks are estimated to come in from .855 billion bushels to .987 billion bushels with the average estimate at .96 billion bushels. Seeded acres expectations come in from 30.1-32.7 million acres with the average being 31.4 million acres.
Technicals: The chart has certainly turned more favorable this week, but tomorrows USDA report has the ability to change things pretty quickly. If the report comes in on the friendly side, we could see short covering press prices towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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