Terrible exports put a drag on grains

Published on: 12:59PM Oct 18, 2018

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Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session 1 ½ cents lower, trading in a range of 3 cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 4,500 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Weekly export sales this morning came in at 382,500 metric tons, a very disappointing number.  Yesterday’s weekly EIA ethanol report showed ethanol production declined from 1.040 million barrels per day to 1.011mbpd.  There are no major news events scheduled in the near future, so weather, harvest, and money flow will be the main focus for the remainder of the month.  The U.S. trade representatives has notified congress that it would like to initiate trade talks with the EU, UK, and Japan; due to regulations these talks cannot begin until 90 days after the notification.  This will be something to keep a close eye on as we enter the new year. 

 

Technicals:  Yesterday’s narrow trading range leaves the technical landscape near unchanged from the previous day.  We continue to welcome a pull back to 370-373 as a buying opportunity.  This pocket represents the 100-day moving average along with previously important price points (including recent resistance).  If the bulls can continue to defend this pocket, we believe there is a chance to work closer towards....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybeans finished yesterday’s session up ¼ of a cent, trading in a range of 7 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 2,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Weekly export sales this morning came in at 293,600 metric tons, a less than impressive number.  The U.S. trade representatives has notified congress that it would like to initiate trade talks with the EU, UK, and Japan; due to regulations these talks cannot begin until 90 days after the notification.  This will be something to keep a close eye on as we enter the new year. 

 

Technicals:  It was a relatively calm day in the soybean market as prices continue to consolidate following Monday’s rip higher.  In our opinion, this is a healthy pullback.  Previous resistance now becomes first support, we have outlined that as 870 ¾-875.  If the bulls can defend this on a closing basis we will likely see a confirmation of a bull flag and another wave of buying come in and take us closer towards....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 6 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 8 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 3,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Weekly export sales this morning came in at 476,000 metric tons, this was inline with expectations.  There has not been a whole lot of new news here as of late to get this market moving outside of the recent 20 cent range, basically 505-525.  If corn and beans can get moving north, we would expect to see some spillover momentum help support prices.

 

Technicals:  As mentioned briefly above, the market has been stuck in a 20-cent range for the last few months which has neutralized our previously bearish bias.  We are fairly friendly on corn and beans which has us leaning a little friendlier wheat as well.  If the bulls can chew through the top end of resistance, we would not be surprised to see....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

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