Was that the bottom in grains?
Jun 20, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 19 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 32,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Defining yesterday’s grain trade as a “wild day” would be the understatement of the year. We saw peak panic in the first half of the session as the market puked out on the back of additional trade concerns and forced liquidation. Now that the market broke it’s “fever” fundamentalists can start focusing on supply, demand, and weather, which is arguably the most important for this time of year. As of right now, things look favorable across much of the corn belt which means good weather is likely already baked into the cake, a miss on moisture could provide some premium into the market.
Technicals: At the beginning of the week we discussed that we need to see peak panic set in before this market can begin the healing process. Yesterday’s capitulation was that peak panic we were looking for. After sitting on a neutral bias for the last week, we believe that there are some great opportunities to start nibbling here to the buy-side, so we are shifting from neutral to neutral/bullish. Yesterday’s technical levels held well despite the volatility, in yesterday’s report we had the bottom end of our support pocket coming in at 360 ½, on the resistance side we had 376 ¼-379 ¼; both of these remain intact. The bulls want to see....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybeans finished yesterday’s session down 18 ½ cents, trading in a range of 64 ½ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 23,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: As mentioned in previous reports, fundamentals had taken a back seat to what has become more of an emotional and irrational trade environment. Peak panic set in shortly after yesterday’s open on the back of continued tariff talks and forced liquidation. After yesterday’s cleansing process, we feel that the market can start to go back to focusing on technicals and fundamentals. Weather will continue to be a key catalyst here in the near term, as of now things look favorable for crop conditions. Weekly export sales will be released tomorrow morning.
Technicals: Capitulation was the word of the day yesterday afternoon as the market recovered from an early morning washout. There is some serious technical damage on the chart which may be difficult for bulls to achieve anything more than a relief rally. The bulls want to see consecutive closes above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: July wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 10 cents, trading in a range of 23 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 8,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures rolled off hard yesterday as money flow and weakness spilled over from corn and beans. The market has rebounded and holding firm to start the session, but bulls will want to see volume confirm price on the floor open. This week’s crop progress report showed that winter wheat conditions increased 1% to 39% good/excellent. The winter wheat crop is 27% harvested. Spring wheat has a rating of 78% good/excellent and is 97% emerged. Weekly export sales are out tomorrow morning.
Technicals: The head and shoulders pattern has been in full affect over the last week with the technical breakdown below 502-507 accelerating things. The market managed to achieve our target of 477 ½-483, so we are moving our bias from neutral/bearish to outright neutral. We are looking to sell rallies which means we believe that a rally will be only for relief. First technical resistance comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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