Weekend Ag Update (Grains & Livestock 2.10.19)
Feb 10, 2019
Last Week’s Close: March corn futures finished Friday’s session don 2 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 7 ¾ cents. Futures were down 4 cents on the week.
Quick Take: Friday’s USDA report could be the biggest dud in recent memory, much of that because of the elevated anticipation due to the lack of data during the government shutdown. Early on during the government shutdown we said several times that the markets are efficient as ever and the lack of data would have little affect on actual market conditions. Friday’s report confirmed that, not just for corn, but across the board. Our bias has been friendly corn and that continues to be the case. Only a close below technical support would neutralize our bias, see tomorrow’s Grain Express for the full technical breakdown. If you are not a client and would like another trial of our daily commentary, please email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
Last Week’s Close: March soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 3 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 10 cents. Futures were down just 1 cent for the week.
Quick Take: As mentioned in the corn section above, the market proved its efficiency regardless of USDA data or not. In last week’s reports/interviews we talked about they psychology of the market and our anticipations for the report. We talked about the USDA being a reminder that there is a lot of the bin and that would lead to an initial break, a break in which we said would bring a buying opportunity as attentions quickly turn back to trade. The market didn’t break to a point where we got overly aggressive with clients, but there was certainly opportunity for active participants. Be sure to check out tomorrow’s Grain Express for our updated market bias and technical expectations for this week’s trade. If you are not a client and would like another trial of our daily commentary, please email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
Last Week’s Close: March wheat futures finished Friday’s session up 4 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 8 ¾ cents. Futures were down 6 ½ cents for the week.
Quick Take: we were expecting Friday to be the day that set the technical tone going forward, but it was Thursday’s breakdown that caught participants off guard, changing the technical landscape for the near term. Be sure to check out our Grain Express in the morning for our full technical breakdown. On the fundamental side of things, the market has seemingly done a good job at pricing in the current conditions. On the macro side of things, the resurgence in the U.S. Dollar last week was a headwind. If that strength continues this week, it will be an uphill battle for wheat bulls. If you are not a client and would like another trial of our daily commentary, please email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
Last Week’s Close: April live cattle finished Friday’s session up 1.10, trading in a range of 1.10 on the day. For the week, futures were up 1.425.
Quick Take: The market provided ample opportunity for the bulls and the bears to make profitable trades. We have been writing about our expectations of a tighter trading range over the past several weeks, presenting what some might refer to as a “traders paradise”. With prices finishing near the top end of the range, you can probably guess our bias going into this week’s trade. Cash trade picked up late Friday afternoon, it looks like the bulk came in near 125 live and 200 dressed, firm from the previous week. If you are not a client and would like another trial of our daily commentary, please email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
Last Week’s Close: March feeder cattle finished Friday’s session up 1.025, trading in a range of 1.05. For the week, futures were up 1.80.
Quick Take: Though feeder cattle and live cattle look different on the broad chart, the same range bound premise rings true. For the last month, we have been trading 142-145 (give or take). It’s not the most exciting range, but it has been the gift that keeps on giving. There will be a point in time where the market breaks out or breaks down, but for now we are trading the market we have, not the one we want. If you are not a client and would like another trial of our daily commentary, please email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
Last week’s Close: April lean hogs finished Friday’s session down 1.225, trading in a range of 1.35. For the week, futures were down 1.775.
Quick Take: It looked like we were going to start seeing the market dig itself out of a hole on Monday’s session, trading and finishing the day limit up. The fact that we couldn’t get 1 tick of follow through on Tuesday was the biggest caution flag in the world. As mentioned in our weekend update last weekend, the chart continues to be a technical graveyard and a retest of the contract lows in are in play. There will likely be a short squeeze at some point, but you have to remember that the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent. If you are not a client and would like another trial of our daily commentary, please email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.