Weekend Ag Update (Grains & Livestock 5.19.19)

Published on: 23:43PM May 19, 2019

Weekend Ag Update


May 19, 2019




Quick Take:  Wet weather continues to extend planting delays throughout the Midwest, this will likely be reflected in tomorrow afternoon’s crop progress report.  Early calls for tonight’s open are 2-5 cents higher.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds with a net short position of 282,918 futures/options, little changed from the previous week.  Keep in mind that that data is collected through Tuesday, estimates for the back half of the week show funds reduced another 73,000 contracts, putting the real time estimate closer to -210,000 futures/options.  Our bias remains bullish going into this week’s trade. 




Quick Take:  Soybeans are called 1-3 cents higher before tonight’s open.  Wet weather has been a concern for and will likely be a growing one the deeper into May that we get.  Some corn acres could get shifted over to beans but there is also talk of farmers going prevent.  With the lack of a trade deal in sight, we would not be surprised to see rallies get sold into.  Friday’s Commitment  of Traders report sowed that funds holding a record short position of 168,835 futures/options through Tuesday.  Estimates indicate that funds bought back roughly 1,500 contracts in the back half of the week.




Quick Take:  Wheat futures are called 1-2 cents higher before tonight’s open as funds continue to cover their short positions.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a short position of 78,461 futures/options for the Chicago contract, funds are short another 56,424 contracts in KC wheat.  Our bias remains bullish going into this week’s trade. 




Quick Take:  In our weekly “2 Minute Drill” (Watch Now!) on Thursday we called for a near term low base on positive price action and order flow.  In that report we mentioned the big technical barrier being 112.65, the market tested and failed against that on Friday.  If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above here, we would expect to see a continuation towards 115.  Funds are long just over 87,000 contracts, roughly half of what they had just one month ago. 


Lean Hogs


Quick Take:  It’s the same story, just another week.  We remain optimistic on prices over the intermediate to longer term.  The technical resistance pocket that the bulls need to get out above comes in at 94.  A conviction close above here opens the door for a retest of contract highs. 


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