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Weekend Wrap Up (Grains and Livestock)

Published on: 15:01PM Feb 03, 2019

Weekend Ag Update

 

February 3, 2019

 
 

 Corn

 

A stick in the mud, the best way to describe the corn market over the last two weeks.  Perma-bulls/bears are growing  frustrate with the sideways trade, but that’s not to say there hasn’t been plenty of opportunity.  Part of the sideways trade was in part to the lack of new news on the wires.  With the government back open, we will begin to get back on track for those weekly and monthly reports.  Friday’s USDA report will be the big-ticket item this week, we will have estimates out for you by midweek.  Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

Soybeans

 

Soybeans were a little livelier last week, with headlines popping and dropping prices on their initial release.  We have been writing about the importance of anticipating these headlines for the last few months, last week was a prime example.  Knowing that the U.S. was meeting with China regarding trade, we were expecting no concrete deal.  This would have a negative reaction, but knowing this administration, you need to anticipate a positive spin on things.  Those positive spins have been sold into for several months, so nothing new there.  Sure, we want a trade deal, but you have to trade the market you have, not the one you want.  Don’t be paralyzed by hope, there have been and will continue to be many great opportunities in this market.  Friday’s USDA report will be the big-ticket item this week, we will have estimates out for you by midweek.  Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

Wheat

 

Wheat futures have been the toughest of the three markets to get a firm grasp on (in our opinion).  We have had a bullish bias and continue to have one but worked with clients to reduce some of that long exposure into the weekend.  We marked higher lows in the middle of last week, giving the bulls a slight advantage into next week’s trade.  With that said, the market is approaching stiff resistance at 529.  If the bulls are able to chew through this level, we would not be surprised to see another round of short covering take this market above 540 in a relatively short amount of time. Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

Live Cattle

 

Live cattle worked higher for in the first half of the week, a move that we noted “lacked conviction” with small gains and tight ranges.  We finally got the break on Thursday, allowing us to reduce that short exposure and eventually look to the long side of things with clients on Friday morning.  As we have noted over the past several weeks, we think this market will begin trading in a more defined range, providing plenty of opportunity to take some meat off of the bone.  Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

Feeder  Cattle

 

As with the live cattle, feeder cattle finally got the break  lower on Thursday, providing an opportunity for us to work with clients in reducing short exposure and looking to the long side on Friday.  Over the past two weeks we have been very clear in our reports and on radio/tv interview that this is a rangebound market from 142ish-145ish.  We will continue to trade that  range until we see a technical breakout or breakdown.  Odds would likely favor a breakdown with a softening chart over the last month, but we are tempering our expectations for the time being. Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

Lean Hogs

 

Out of all the Ag markets, lean hogs have been the thorn in our side.  We want to  be friendly the market, but the chart continues to be a technical graveyard.  As mentioned in last week’s Weekend Update, “there is risk of a retest to the contract lows of 57.80 in July.”  The RSI (relative strength index) is at 25.5, this is “technically” oversold but not to the extremes we saw in July (19.30). Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.