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what's next for corn?

Published on: 13:09PM Feb 02, 2018

CORN (March)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  March corn futures finished yesterdays session unchanged, trading in a range of 3 ½ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 8,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterdays export sales came in at 1,850,000 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 1,000,000-1,700,000 metric tons.  Corn bulls want to see a continued trend of better than expected exports to encourage additional short covering and new buying interest.  The USD has been trading near multiyear lows which has helped revive some global demand.  Weather in South America continues to be monitored as some are concerned of potential yield loss in areas of Argentina.  Private estimates for the Brazilian crop have been increased from 23.44 mmt to 23.87 mmt.

 

Technicals: The market has been firming up over the past few weeks and it looks as though that may continue.  The bulls must maintain price action above 357 ¼-358 ½ to remain in control.  This pocket contains the 100-day moving average, along with a key retracement level.  The next level of resistance comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (March)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  March soybeans finished yesterdays session down 12 cents, trading in a range of 18 cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 8,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Soybean futures took a turn south yesterday on the back of very disappointing export sales.  Weekly export sales came in at 358,900 metric tons, this compares to the estimated range from 600,000-1,200,000 metric tons.  On top of the poor exports sales, chances of rain have worked back into the forecast for areas of Argentina that have been relatively dry.  There are some seasonals in play that should be encouraging for the bulls.   We have recently referenced a May buy, the November buy starts today.  If you had bought on February first and sold on the 17th, you would have been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years, with the average gain being about 12 cents.   

 

Technicals:  Soybean futures tested and held the first test of 980 on a closing basis yesterday, but the market is under pressure and testing 980 again this morning.  This puts the bulls back on their heels as we head towards the open.  971 ¼ is going to be the key line in the sand we are watching for as we round out the week; we like the value at this level on the first test.  This represents a key Fibonacci retracement from the June lows to the July highs.  The bears want to defend....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (March)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  March wheat futures closed ¼ cent lower yesterday, trading in a range of 8 ¼ cents on the day.  Funds were estimate buyers of 500 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Wheat futures were under pressure to start yesterday morning as weekly export sales came in at 289,100 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 300,000-600,000 metric tons.  Weather premium has been the catalyst for encouraging higher prices on the back of fund short covering.  The bulls need to see more bad news to continue the rally, neutral or no news will likely invite sellers back into the market.  The USD is trading near multiyear lows which has also offered some support to the market.

 

Technicals:  Wheat futures tested and held first support at 442 ¼ yesterday, finishing the day near unchanged.  That support level remains a key focus today, another test and close below will likely mark a near term top as we would expect sellers to come back in and press us back towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.