What's next for the gran market?
Jul 13, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 4 ½ cents, trading in a range of 13 cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 17,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: The bulls finally got so friendly news on the wire from the USDA yesterday. Yields were left unchanged as they typically are for this report, but many analysts were looking for the USDA to stick their neck out and increase yields from 174 to 174.9. US carryout came in at 1.552 billion bushels, this compares to the average trade estimate of 1.712 billion bushels. Market participants will now turn the attention back to weather as the crop continues into the key pollination period. As of right now, weather looks friendly to the crop which could continue to be a drag on prices.
Technicals: Yesterday’s positive close was nice to see, but the bulls desperately need to see follow through momentum to start a legitimate bottoming process. Over the past two months these rallies have been nothing more than relief rallies, so consecutive closes will be important in turning the tide. The bulls first hurdle comes in from 358 ½-360, this was previous support. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above here, we would expect to see additional short covering take us towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 2 cents, trading in a range of 18 ½ cents. Funds were estimated to have been neutral on their buys/sells.
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s USDA report did not provide the silver lining that many market participants were hoping for. Lower export projections led to a carryout of 580 million bushels, this compared to the average analyst estimate of 471 million bushels. Yield estimates were left unchanged which is typical for this report. We continue to feel that the demand picture will be a little rosier as we get closer to the new year.
Technicals: As mentioned yesterday, it is a fool’s errand to try and find technical support in a market that is trading in uncharted territory. We remain neutral here, which in our mind is the right position (yes, being in cash is a position). The fact that the market was able to rally in the afternoon after a bearish report was good to see, this could mean that the selling is nearing exhaustion. With that said, if the market cannot use that silver lining to garner strength today, it will be rendered useless. The bulls have a lot of work to do, the first meaningful resistance isn’t until....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 9 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 15 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 8,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures rallied on what we thought was a relatively neutral if not bearish report. The USDA had all wheat production at 1.881 billion bushels, this was above the average estimate of 1.858 billion bushels. Ending stocks were at 985 million bushels, this was above the average estimate of 973 million bushels.
Technicals: Although we got a nice rally yesterday, not much has changed in the last 24 hours for us. In yesterday’s report we said: “If you were short this is a place to reduce or lighten up. We will not recommend flipping long, we would rather sit tight and sell rallies.”. The first technical resistance pocket that we would like to look at selling comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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