Will a softer U.S. dollar help grains?

Published on: 13:48PM Nov 06, 2018

Grain Express

 

November 6, 2018

 
 

 

Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 3 cents, trading in a range of 4 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 9,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report showed corn harvest is now 76% complete, up 14% from the previous week and just 1% behind the five-year average.  The USDA announced a flash sale of 101,745 metric tons to Mexico for 2018/2019, a friendly headline to start the week.  Attention will now turn towards Thursday’s USDA report, scheduled for 11 am cst.  Early estimates are for yields to come in at 180 bushels per acre, putting total production at 14.721 billion bushels.  Carryout estimates are near 1.773 billion bushels.

 

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Soybeans (January)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  January soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 11 ¼ cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 2,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report showed soybean harvest is now 83% complete, up 11% from last week and closing the gap with the 5-year average of 89%.  Elections today may have some ripple affects in commodities, but we wouldn’t expect much to change in the core fundamentals.  Thursday’s USDA report will be the big-ticket item this week.  Early expectations are for yields to come in near 52.9 bushels per acre, putting production near 4.676 billion bushels.  Carryout estimates are coming in near 898 million bushels. 

 

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Wheat (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 8 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 3,000 contracts on the day. 

 

Fundamentals:  Weekly export inspections came in towards the low end of expectations yesterday morning, putting a bit of a damper on the early trade.  Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report showed that winter wheat is 84% planted.  Good/excellent conditions are at 51%, a drop of 2% from the previous week and 4% below the five-year average.  We continue to watch the US dollar very closely as it will have a direct impact on the export market.  If the dollar continues to soften up, we would expect to see that put a soft floor in the market. 

 

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