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A Bottom For Grains?

Published on: 11:03AM Aug 14, 2019

Grain Express

August 14, 2019

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat


Corn (December)

Fundamentals:  December corn futures continued lower yesterday as the bull camp threw in the towel, some likely forced by margin/risk departments.  The market has tried to stabilize in the overnight/early morning trade but has not been overly impressive.  Crop Tours are set to hit the road in the coming weeks, we expect those to have some implications on price action, being some of the participants work directly with large funds/corporations. 

Technicals:  Technicals have less significance in this type of market environment, but that does not mean we stop watching them.  The market worked into our support pocket from 376 ½-377 ½, the gap from May 14th.  Below here is contract lows at 363 ¾.  Though we are oversold and testing these important levels, the chart is in shambles.  Rallies will likely be relief rallies until we start seeing consecutive closes back above resistance.

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Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals:  Soybean futures caught a bid yesterday, thanks to new news that suggested a delay in additional tariffs on Chinese goods and a meeting between US and China trade delegates in two weeks.  This story will inevitably play out like “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”, but until we get more substance, we believe these headlines should be sold. 

Technicals:  Soybeans made a valiant attempt at the psychologically significant $9.00 handle yesterday but was met by stiff resistance and several willing sellers.  875-895 is the short-term range, a break-out or break-down could lead to a bigger directional move.  Bears have a slight advantage with the trend of lower highs and lower lows still intact from the June highs near 950. 

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Wheat (December)

Fundamentals:  December wheat futures tried to recover some yesterday but ran out of steam as market participants continue to digest the bearish numbers from Monday’s report.  Our bias remains Neutral/Bearish.

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