The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Grains were modestly higher in the night trade with corn up 2, soybeans up 4 and wheat posting a 1-cent advance.
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The EU increased its estimate of 2017/18 usable soft wheat production in the European Union by 1 MMT to 140.4. That’s up from last year’s 133.7 MMT. For corn, they pegged the crop at 59.1 MMT slightly below last season’s 60.8.
Soybeans are finding modest support as rains are expected to slow the US harvest. Dry Spring planting in Brazil is also supporting the market. Brazilian oilseeds industry group, Abiove, estimated the nation's soybean output at 108.5 million tonnes in the 2017/18 season, down from a record 113.8 million tonnes in the previous crop cycle. Longer term traders are considering the implications of a La Nina weather event which appears to be a more likely outcome in the next few months. This tends to be associated with dry weather in Argentina.
This morning’s export sales from USDA showed better than expected sales for corn on the week while wheat and soybeans were at the high end of expectations. Year-to-date sales for corn and beans continue to significantly lag last year’s pace with corn sales 40% lower than the sales achieved at this point last year while soybean sales are 18% lower. USDA for the year expects corn sales to be 20% lower while soybean sales are expected to be 4% higher.
Weekly Export Sales-
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