Can export sales lift corn?
May 21, 2015
In the overnight session the grains are trading higher, with corn up 1 1/2 cents, soybeans up 1 1/4 cents and wheat up 3 cents. The U.S. dollar is lower by 1/10th of a percent and crude oil is 48 cents higher. This morning a reportable export sale was announced for 152,400 metric tons of old crop corn to unknown destinations and 50,800 metric tons of new crop. Chicago wheat trades near its 100 day moving average (5.18 3/4) which has acted as strong resistance on Monday and Tuesday this week. Wheat traders are focusing on the heavy rains in the southern plains which have been causing concerns that the wheat will have quality issues at harvest. Wheat traders are also monitoring Russia whose forecast has turned dry over the next two weeks and whose crop is beginning to feel stress from the hot dry weather.
Export sales this week showed that wheat, corn and soybeans all met expectations. Wheat booked 74,400 metric tons of old crop sales and 128,200 metric tons of new crop. With analysts expecting to see as much as 200,000 metric tons of cancellations, this week’s sales were relatively positive. Old crop corn sales jumped 12 percent from the previous week with 812,600 metric tons booked above the 400,000-600,000 metric tons expected by traders. Soybeans also showed positive export sales this week with 165,500 metric tons of old crop sales which was a 21 percent improvement week over week. Soybeans continue to outperform sales expectations late in its export season.
Yesterday, the EIA weekly ethanol report showed a sharp jump in production by 46,000 barrels per day to a total of 958,000 barrels per day. This decisively ends the two week slump in ethanol production that brought weekly totals below 2013 levels. However, routine facility maintenance played a big role in the early may production slump and it appears production is picking back up again as we move into driving season. Ethanol production year to date is up 4.8 percent compared to the USDA’s expectations which only show a 1.3 percent increase YOY. Ethanol stocks also climbed by 135,000 barrels to 20.43 million barrels this week.
A waterway leading to Argentina’s Rosario grain hub was blocked for the last two days after a ship ran aground. This disruption comes during the busiest season just following harvest