The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
The FBN Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Grains lower in the overnights.
Argentina rains disappointed over the weekend.
EXPORTERS SELL 107,752 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO JAPAN DURING 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA
EXPORTERS SELL 254,800 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR - USDA
Weekend rainfall was light and precipitation totals ranged from .3” to 1.1”.
Rain fell in southern Entre Rios, southern Santa Fe and Buenos Aires and La Pampa. The majority of the area received less than .5” of rain.
Argentina rains in March have been between ¼ and ½ of normal precipitation.
Rain forecast in Argentina’s main crop growing region next weekend.
Ag Rural estimates soybean harvest at 48 percent complete compared to 56 percent complete during the same period LY.
Ag Rural estimates 1st corn crop around 28 percent harvested compared to 36 percent last year.
Ag Rural estimates Brazil’s 2nd corn crop is 81 percent planted compared to 88 percent complete last year at this time.
The Brazilian meat processor, JBS, purchased 30,000 MT of corn from Argentina after local farmers hold onto grains and prices to import become competitive with local supplies.
China May Double Soybean Exports
The sharp rally in soybean meal has traders estimating China's soybean meal exports could double to 2 million tonnes in 2017/18.
Countries like Japan, South Korea and Vietnam which currently purchase soybean meal from Argentina may turn to other sources after drought has significantly reduced production potential in Arg.
Commitment of Traders- Week ending March 6th
The corn net long position for money managers (MM) increased to 163,534 contracts from 59,120 LW.
MM Soybean net long position increased this week to 183,711 contracts from 147,380 LW.
MM Kansas Wheat net long position grew to 20,759 contracts from 11,008 LW.
MM net short position for Chicago Wheat shrunk this week to -32,531 contracts from -60,632 LW.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)
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