Chinese Hogs Numbers Decline Amid Conflicting Government Data

Published on: 21:36PM Jul 15, 2019

Chinese Hogs Numbers Decline Amid Conflicting Government Data 

  • China's pork output fell by less than expected in the first six months of 2019 as the country has been unable to control the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF). 
  • China produced 24.7 million tonnes of pork in the first six months of 2019, down 5.5% YoY according to figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics
  • China's hog herd declined 15% YoY to 347.61 million head as pigs died from the virus and farmers held back from restocking.
  • Figures from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released on the same day last week illustrated that the Chinese hog herd had shrunk 25.8% in June from a year earlier, with the number of sows down 26.7%. 
  • The number of slaughtered hogs in the first half of 2019 fell 6.2% to 313.46 million head.
  • Other analysts in the private sector have also questioned official data on China's hog herd. 
  • There is no vaccine for ASF and humans cannot contract the virus.
  • What It Means For The US Farmer: At FBN we believe that the latest Chinese hog inventory data continues negative for the U.S. soybean export program and the producer.  It comes as no surprise to us that the Chinese government is presenting conflicting data about the status of domestic hog herd. At FBN we have long questioned the reliability of the Chinese hog data as it pertains to ASF and these conflicting reports are a perfect example. 


2019 Ukraine Corn and Wheat Production Estimates Increased 

  • Ukrainian agri-consultant ProAgro revised the country’s 2019 grain harvest forecast to 72.55 MMT from 71.3 MMT due to a higher corn harvest.
  • ProArgo is estimating a robust corn harvest of 34.52 MMT with an average yield of 7.25 tonnes per hectare for the year. 
  • The corn production should be just shy of last year’s record 35.8 MMT bumper crop.    
  • ProAgro is estimating that the Ukraine will produce a wheat crop of 27.4 MMT which would be a record wheat production for the country and ahead of 2018’s production of 25 MMT. 
  • What It Means For The US Farmer: At FBN we believe that continued record large harvests from the Ukraine can be a negative for the U.S. wheat and corn farmers.  Because the Ukraine directly competes with the U.S. in corn and wheat exports markets, a strong U.S. dollar and high prices has the ability to suppress demand for U.S. corn and wheat.                                              


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