Chinese Soybean Crushers Feeling The Pain of Trade War
Jul 27, 2018
Mexico, US Seek NAFTA Deal By End Of August
The Mexican Economy Secretary, Ildefonso Guajardo, announced that the US and Mexico will double down on efforts to update NAFTA by Aug 31. Guajardo had met with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Washington D.C. and both parties agreed to finish up the deal by the end of August. Lighthizer also announced that while a deal with Mexico is expected in August, another deal regarding updating NAFTA with Canada would follow close behind. Canadian officials remain insistent that NAFTA will remain a trilateral trade deal. NAFTA modernization talks have been ongoing since August 2017 and President Trump has threatened to withdraw from the trade bloc.
Export Sales Announcements
Export sales of 270,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year. Export sales of 154,100 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
Chinese Soybean Crushers Are Feeling The Pain Of The Trade War
At the beginning of July, China responded to US tariffs with $34 billion tariffs on American goods, including soybeans. Since then, over 20% of total Chinese bean crushing capacity has temporarily shut down. The Chinese bean crushing sector is the largest in the world. China currently has record soymeal stocks, due to hog producers culling their herds because of decreasing prices in pork. Following the tariffs at the beginning of the month, Chinese crush margins have fallen to -$25.15 per metric tonne or -$0.685 per bushel. Conversely, in the US, crush margins are at the second highest level on record at $2.20 per bushel, according to the CBOT.
Good Moisture Expected Across The Midwest Through The Weekend
E Nebraska and W Iowa are expecting storms to roll through the area, bringing 2-3 inches of rain with them. The NWS says the likelihood of more severe storms is low. Heavy rainfall is headed for the southern shore of Lake Michigan, with thunderstorms expected over N Illinois and N Indiana. W Michigan will also catch some that system, which has had some significant drought stress. Missouri is also anticipating several inches of rain through the weekend and into early next week. Much of the state has not seen any notable precipitation over the past 2 months.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)