The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
Grains shrugged off steep losses on Sunday to go into the morning break with some upside momentum.
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Rains over the weekend in Western North Dakota and Eastern Montana provided minor relief with totals of less than a 0.5” over the region. Looking ahead, U.S. Midwest temperatures will be very warm today and Monday, but cooling is expected from north to south during mid- to late week with the far southwestern Corn Belt staying very warm most of the week. Some short term relief to dry and warm weather is possible in the far southwestern Corn Belt during the coming weekend, but it will not last long with more dry and warm weather expected next week.
In Australia, hot dry weather has forecasters there expecting some problems with the crop. Australia’s east and west coast regions have received less than half their normal moisture for the 3-month period April to June. Due to the outlook for little soil moisture, traders and analysts are cutting expectations for Australia's wheat production by 20% below official estimates with some going as low as 19 MMT to 21 MMT vs official June estimates of 24.1 MMT.
NOPA soybean crush estimates will be released later this morning. Analysts look for a 143.1 MB crush, with forecasts ranging from 141 to 144. Last year, June crush was record high at 145.1 MB.
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