The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with March corn up 1 ½ cents, January Soybeans up 3 ¼ cents and March wheat down ¾ of a penny. Yesterday, November 2018 soybeans broke through previous resistance set last month before the WASDE report and is now roughly 10 cents away from the contract high of $10.28. March corn is trading above the 20 day moving average this morning which could provide some intra-day support.
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Informa reduced their corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil for the 2017-18. Soybean production was reduced by 1 million metric tons to 110 million metric tons and corn production was revised lower by 3 million metric tons to 89 MMT. The company also reduced their estimate for Australian 2017-18 wheat production by 1.3 million metric tons to 20.3 MMT.
Statistics Canada released production numbers this morning, showing a larger than expected harvest. All wheat production was set at 29.98 million metric tons which was above expectations of 28 MMT. Canola production was set at 21.31 million metric tons which is a production record in Canada and above the highest trade guess of 21 MMT.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology announced yesterday that the surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific had reached La Nina levels. This weather event typically means colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere and warmer, wetter winters in the Southern Hemisphere. The Bureau also said that current models suggest the La Nina could be weak and not last long.
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