NOPA March Soybean Crush Estimates

Published on: 13:46PM Apr 15, 2019

Export Sales Announcement

  • Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 140,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

NOPA March Soybean Estimated Crush: 168 MBU -3 MBU YoY     

  • A Thompson-Reuters poll estimates that NOPA members likely crushed 168.028 MBU of soybeans during March.  
  • Crush forecasts for March ranged from 155 MBU to 171.4 MBU.  
  • NOPA releases their March crush and oil stocks data today, 4/15.
  • If realized, March crush would be the second heaviest on record, behind last year's 171.858 MBU. In February, the NOPA crush totaled 154.498 MBU.
  • If a YoY decline in March is realized this would be the first decline during the 2018 marketing year.
  • Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of March are estimated at 1.783 billion pounds, up 1.8% from 1.752 billion pounds at the end of February but -8.4% from 1.946 billion pounds during March 2018.
  • What It Means For The U.S. Farmer:  At FBN we believe that a slowing NOPA crush pace during March would not be a surprise.  U.S. weather during March created logistical issues for many plants.                         

China Starts Reviewing U.S. DDGS Anti-Dumping Measures

  • China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed it is starting a review of its anti-dumping tariffs on U.S. DDG imports.  
  • China's tariffs on U.S. DDGS were first implemented in 2016 at a rate of 33.8%.  Starting in January 2017, the anti-dumping duties were raised to between 42.2% and 53.7%, while anti-subsidy tariffs have ranged from 11.2% to 12%.
  • The investigation should be completed in a year.
  • What It Means For The U.S. Farmer: We believe that the review of U.S. DDG exports by the Chinese is a positive step that can be supportive of prices.  The estimated timing of year to completion seems like it could be reduced during the U.S./Chinese trade negotiations.                                    

 

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