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NOPA March Soybean Crush Tops Estimates

Published on: 15:06PM Apr 16, 2019

AT 170 MBU, NOPA March Soybean Crush Tops Estimates  

  • March NOPA soybean crush at 170 MBU topped estimates by 2 MBU as positive margins helped maintain a near record-setting crush pace.    
  • Crush forecasts for March ranged from 155 MBU to 171.4 MBU.  
  • The 170 MBU was up from 154 MBU in February but down from the record of 171.8 MBU in March 2018.  
  • Soybean oil stocks rose to 1.761 billion pounds, compared with 1.752 billion pounds at the end of February and 1.946 billion pounds at the end of March 2018.  
  • What It Means For The U.S. Farmer: Positive margins helped maintain healthy soybean demand by crushers.  We continue to believe that U.S. crusher demand for soybeans can not solve a 895 MBU carryout but the continued pace can be supportive of local basis.                                                   

China Starts Reviewing U.S. DDGS Anti-Dumping Measures

  • China could agree to allow more Brazilian meat (pork, beef and poultry)  imports following high-level talks set between the two countries for early May.
  • It is believed that up to 78 Brazilian meat processing plants could be added to the list of those certified to export to China.
  • Trade talks between China and Brazil have been on-going and are set to accelerate over the next two months.  In addition to the Chinese delegation visiting Brazil, the Brazilian delegation will travel to China at the end of May to continue discussions.  
  • Chinese investment hit a seven-year high in 2017; the figures for 2018 have not been released.
  • Agriculture goods are not the only items on the agenda.  Telecommunications and construction items including further development of Brazil’s rail infrastructure are also part of the conversation.    
  • What It Means For The U.S. Farmer: We believe that China’s continued investment and engagement with Brazil’s senior political leadership will create further competition for the U.S. agricultural producer.  We also believe that China certifying more slaughter plants, presumably a focus on pork, is neutral for the U.S. farmer. China’s pork import demand during 2019 and 2020 will accelerate and the U.S. does not have enough hogs to supply all of China’s demand lost to ASF.                                        

 

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