Dec Corn 17 vs 18
Dec 18 corn is trading at $4.04, virtually the same price that Dec 17 corn was trading at this time last year. However, USDA’s new crop carry-out for 2018 is 1,682 MB based on their May report. In 2017, the USDA was over 400 MB higher at 2,110 MB but the board is trading the same $4 value. Last year prices collapsed to $3.35 weighed down by record yields and a ballooning carry-out projection that by harvest reached 2,482 MB. But this year, even if we hit another new record yield of say 178 MB, carry-out would stay below 2,000 MB. The chance of Dec corn prices below $3.75 seems remote.
RFS Policy Changes “Indefinitely Delayed“
The White House was expected to announce changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard program yesterday but instead sources now say the deal is indefinitely delayed. A last minute push by corn state lawmakers may have derailed the process as they expressed grave concerns about proposals that would allow ethanol exports to count towards RIN certificates, undermining the programs effectiveness.
Taiwan's MFIG buys 65,000 tonnes of corn from optional U.S./Brazil origin
Oklahoma Wheat Harvest Just OK
The Oklahoma Wheat harvest continues to progress in most regions of the state with the exception of far Northwestern and Panhandle areas according to a report by the OK Wheat Commission. While protein qualities and test weights have been promising, lower yields and lack of acres with losses to Cotton and other crops continue to make this an extremely fast-moving harvest. In several locations across the Central and Western corridors of the state from Texas to Kansas, many elevator managers have mentioned they hope to take in 10% of what they would in a normal year. The Commission says USDA’s May figure of 52 MB for the state looks accurate, although they caution the final number could come in lower based on the increased reports of abandonment.
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