US Dollar Is Up Again This Morning
May 01, 2018
USDA pegged corn planting at 17%, that is up from only 5% planted last week but below trade guesstimates of around 18% to 23%. Illinois and Missouri were the standouts, planting 28% and 36% of their crop, respectively, in one week’s time. For soybeans, 5% of the crop is planted, which is on par with the 5-year average. Winter wheat crop conditions up-ticked to 33% GE vs 31% last week. Not much movement though in KS/OK/TX after last weekend’s rain.
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Argentina during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
Rains are in W IA this morning and move into IA/IL/WI/MI this week potentially slowing planting. But longer term weather points to few significant planting problems. During the month of May, the western U.S. will be warmer than usual and the east will be mild in the north and warm south. Precipitation during May will be a little greater than usual in the upper Midwest and southeastern states with a small region from eastern Texas to southern Missouri also a little wetter biased. The southwestern U.S. will be drier than usual and so might a part of the Delta, Tennessee River Basin ad lower eastern Midwest. West Texas and the southwestern Plains will still struggle for moisture.
March Crush Expectations
USDA will release monthly soy crush estimate after the close today. Expectations are for 183.2 MB after NOPA numbers for March were record large. USDA soy crush in February was 165 MB and March ’17 was 160 MB.
USD Bull Continues
The Dollar is up again this morning reaching 92.25. That’s up 3.1% since its recent low 2 weeks ago. Fed meets Tues/Wed with no interest rate changes expected. But the rate setters could signal they are ready to hike in June or change their estimate of two more rate hikes in total this year. Strength in USD is tied to strong interest rates abroad versus deteriorating rates in other major countries. A string of disappointing U.K. economic data has markets expecting rates there to stay flat.
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