The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
In the overnight session the grains were lower with March corn down ¾ of a cent, March Soybeans down 2 ¼ cents and March Hard Winter wheat down 2 ¾ cents. March Chicago wheat is finding resistance at its 50 day moving average at $4.34 per bushel.
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The weather models show that Argentina my see precipitation starting in the south and moving north later today and into Saturday. The precipitation will not be widespread, but will provide pockets of relief to the dry conditions developing in the southern part of the country.
The rally in wheat has lifted prices to a six week high, but the damage on the crop from the sub-zero temperatures will be hard to measure at this stage. Damage will be more clear in the spring when winter wheat crops emerge from dormancy, and it may be difficult for a sustained rally in the commodity unless weather conditions continue to threaten winter wheat crop conditions. Temperatures are colder than normal on the eastern half of the US and are expected to stay that way until Sunday for the states west of MN, IA and MO. By Monday IL, IN and OH temperatures will retreat from their seasonally colder than normal temperatures.
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