China Waives More Tariffs on U.S. Pork & Soybeans

Published on: 04:46AM Dec 09, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for December 9, 2019.

Grain markets pushed higher, led by soybean futures being propped up with China waiving import tariffs on some U.S. soybean and pork shipments.  Corn futures found strength on continued harvest delays.  Trade will be focused on the USDA WASDE report being released tomorrow at 11 a.m.

Last week, December corn futures were down 4.75 cents, January soybeans up 12.25 cents, March wheat down 17.75 cents, March soymeal was down $5.90 and March soyoil was up 63 points.

USDA weekly crop progress report will be released today at 3 p.m. CST.  Trade is looking for corn harvest rating at 94% complete (89% complete last week, 99% 5-year average).  Traders will be focusing on how much harvest progress was made in the Northern Midwest states.

CFTC Commitments of Traders showed funds new net position short -85,137 corn contracts, short -99,019 soybean contracts, long +20,567 wheat contracts, long +78,214 live cattle contracts and short -3,774 lean hog contracts.

White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow said a Dec. 15 deadline is still in place to impose a new round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese consumer goods, but President Trump likes where trade talks with China are going.  "There's no arbitrary deadline here ... but that fact remains December 15 is a very important date with respect to a no-go or go-on tariffs," Kudlow said.  "It's going to be totally up to the president.  But December 15th is an important date."

Average estimates for next week's USDA Supply and Demand have been released by Reuters. The average guess for corn ending stocks is 1.919 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks are seen at .476 BB, and wheat is seen at 1.010 BB.

China confirmed it will waive import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the U.S.  The tariff waivers were based on applications by individual companies, the finance ministry said, citing a decision by China's Cabinet without specifying the quantities involved.  Some estimate China’s January/February open soybean demand at 1.5-2.5 million metric tonnes.

China's November soybean imports jumped from a year ago as shipments from the U.S. booked cleared customs, customs data showed.  China imported 8.28 million tonnes of beans in November (up 54% from 5.38 million tonnes a year ago), data from the General Administration of Customs showed. (Reuters)

Cash cattle prices finished last week with $118/$119 trades.  That is steady to $1 over last week. Prices hit their year low at $99 in the second week of September.  December futures imply trading in December will peak around $119.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 1.04 and select down 0.82.  The CME feeder index is 144.49.  Pork cut-out values were up 0.72.