June 20 Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call
Jun 20, 2011
Every Monday morning, Pro Farmer editors record the "Monday Morning Wake Up Call." It's a recorded message available by clicking here.
But... if you'd rather read the report instead of listening, each Monday morning I'll update the copy from the call here to help set your agenda of key issues that will be impacting the grain and livestock markets in the week ahead.
Monday Morning Wake Up Call
Good morning ... this is the June 20th edition of the Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.
It’s raining in northeast Iowa this morning and the weather forecast calls for hefty rains over the next few days across the Plains and Corn Belt. That will stall winter wheat harvest, as well as late soybean plantings in the eastern Belt this week. And while traders generally have a “rain makes grain” attitude, saturated soils in some key areas are very likely starting to trim 2011 corn yield potential.
However, the trend in the corn market is down and speculators still hold a huge long position in July futures. Those positions will either be liquidated or rolled in the next several days. That points to more pressure on nearby corn futures this week.
The outside markets are also working against grain futures this morning. Greece and its debt issues are dominating the financial markets, which is pressuring the euro – which is in turn supporting the U.S. dollar.
USDA delivered a very bullish Cattle on Feed Report last week with slower-than-expected Placements and quicker-than-expected Marketings resulting in fewer-than-expected cattle on feed as of June 1. While the report should help support cash cattle and live cattle futures this week, it should also be signal of slower feed use in the second half of 2011.
While USDA’s June Acreage Report is still more than a week away, anticipation of new official planted acreage estimates for corn, soybeans and spring wheat will begin to dominate trade talk by the end of the week.
In Washington this week, lawmakers are still digesting the impact of last week’s Senate vote to eliminate the ethanol blenders’ tax credit and the import duty – ethanol supporters this week will look for ways to redirect lost funds for ethanol supports to other pro-ethanol areas... like building up the infrastructure to handle more of the fuel.
Also, lawmakers might have to answer to Brazil this week. Last week, the House voted to stop payments awarded to Brazil over a WTO cotton dispute. This week, don’t be surprised if Brazil starts tossing around ideas of restricting imports of some U.S. goods in retaliation.
That’s your Pro Farmer Monday Morning Wake Up Call.