Was that worth a 30-cent butt-kicking?
Jul 01, 2009
Chore time for me isn't what it used to be when I was growing up on our eastern Iowa farm, but taking care of two horses in the morning before I head in for work gives me a little time to think about the day ahead. Each morning, stop at this spot to get a feeling for the "tone of the day" -- and some attitude about agriculture and the markets.
I was thinking…
... about yesterday's USDA reports.
Well, we've had a little time to let the new acreage estimates from USDA sink in -- what do they mean today? Was a 2-million-acre increase in corn plantings really worth a 30-cent butt-kicking? Here's a preview of what we'll be talking about in this week's Pro Farmer newsletter:
USDA’s corn harvested acreage estimate is now 80.107 million, up 2.307 million acres from the June Supply & Demand (S&D) Report. At 153.4 bu. per acre, the acreage increase adds 353.9 million bushels to 2009 corn crop potential. At USDA's harvested acres and USDA's June yield projection, the crop outlook stands at 12.288 billion bushels. Pro Farmer is currently looking for 2009-10 total corn use of about 12.6 billion bushels, so USDA currently sees a crop about 400 million bushels short of what Pro Farmer sees for new-crop demand. Translation... 2009-10 corn carryover (based on what we know right now) is still headed down. (Price translation... adding 350-million-bushels-plus to the crop outlook probably was worth a 30-cent butt-kicking! But with that out of the way, the market should now refocus on new-crop fundamentals... and on figuring out just what yields will be in 2009.)
USDA’s bean harvested acreage estimate is now 76.547 million, up 1.547 million from the June S&D Report. At 42.6 bu. per acre, the acreage increase adds 65.9 million bushels to 2009 soybean crop potential. At USDA's harvested acres and USDA's June yield projection, the crop outlook stands at 3.261 billion bushels. Pro Farmer is currently looking for 2009-10 total soybean use of about 3.1 billion bushels, so USDA currently sees a crop about 150 million bushels bigger than what Pro Farmer sees for new-crop demand. Translation... 2009-10 bean carryover (based on what we know right now) is still headed sharply higher.
... about what makes the new profarmer.com different from other Web sites. You know... why you should subscribe to Pro Farmer newsletter to maintain access to profarmer.com.
First, I know what many of you might be thinking: "I won't pay for access to any Web site... there's plenty of free sites out there that are 'good enough.'" And you're right... there are plenty of free sites out there, including the wonderful AgWeb.com! But don't think about profarmer.com as the only thing you get with a Pro Farmer Membership. In fact, the Pro Farmer Web site is a Member benefit that comes with your Pro Farmer newsletter. If you're not familiar with Pro Farmer newsletter, check out our latest issue.
So... what makes the site different? As I said, access to the site comes with your Membership. That means it's a site where Pro Farmer Members can gather in the cyber-world to share ideas, participate in discussions, and get daily insights from the editors and consultants of Pro Farmer.
Daily services available to Pro Farmer Members on profarmer.com:
News from Around the World: This is an executive briefing produced by PF news editor Roger Bernard each morning. Roger gets you ready for the day with a summary of overseas trade, links to all the day's reports, a summary of the previous day's and overnight trade action and a link to the National Weather Service 6- to 10-day forecast. He also scans the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Washington Post and regional newspapers like the Des Moines Register, the Omaha World-Herald and the Fargo Forum and gives you the top headlines from these papers each day to keep you on top of the news (including the spin each new outlet is putting on that news!).
Inside Washington Today: PF Washington consultant Jim Wiesemeyer is the dean of Washington ag reporters. His coverage and analysis of pending legislation and policy issues is so on-the-mark that farm-state lawmakers are Pro Farmer Members just so they can access Jim's IWT each day. They know if they don't read IWT, they could be caught off-guard on some important issues. If you don't read IWT, the same could happen to you!
From the Bullpen: PF Senior Markets Editor Julianne Johnston's daily report is a great place to start your day. She'll give you an update on overnight trade and the factors moving the markets overnight. She'll also preview the day ahead, including opening calls for the day's trade. But she doesn't stop there... you'll also find calls for the day's cash cattle and cash hog trade and she'll preview any report that's due for release that morning. (Note: Julianne is on vacation this week. The next "fresh" Bullpen will come July 7, but you can scan what she's done in the Bullpen archive to see what she offers Pro Farmer Members every day.)
Marketing Toolbox: PF Senior Market Analyst Brian Grete's daily blog has become one of my favorite spots to go every morning. He starts with "What Traders Are Talking About," where he details some of the things traders are focusing on that might not be making headlines... yet. When you see something in this section of Toolbox, you know it's something Brian believes will become an important factor in grain and livestock price action. He wraps up Toolbox with "The Long and Short of It" -- a quick summary of where he sees prices headed for the day (maybe longer).
Your Precious Land: LandOwner Editor Mike Walsten talks the land markets -- values, rental rates, rental agreements, trends, factors impacting the outlook, etc... -- in his blog. He doesn't update the blog every day... just when he's got something important enough that he thinks all of you interested in the land market should know about. It's a great way to stay in tune with the land market and to get a peek at the kind of news, information and analysis Mike delivers in LandOwner newsletter twice each month.
Chip's Chore Time: You know about this one... but it's on profarmer.com as well as AgWeb.com to give you easy access.
Pro Farmer's Tech Talk: PF technical consultant Jim Wyckoff is one of the most respected chart-watchers in the business... and just happens to be my first boss at Pro Farmer! (Well... one of them... I had a lot of bosses when I started with the company!) When a market makes a major move, this is the spot to go to get an idea of what it means from a technical point of view... and what impact the day's action might have on upcoming trends in the commodity world. Jim doesn't cover just grains and livestock... he'll also comment on the energies, currencies and metal markets in Tech Talk.
And speaking of price action and charts, if you haven't seen the Streaming Quotes and Interactive Charts available at profarmer.com yet, you've got to take a look. This (seriously) is one of the best price and charting packages on the Web... and you get it as a Member benefit when you join Pro Farmer. (Note: We're still working with our Web developers to improve the site. One of the things on our to-do list is to make the "Grains" page the "default page" for streaming quotes. For now, financial market quotes are the default page. Just scroll to the bottom and you'll find a link to the Grains page. We'll also add livestock quotes to this offering later. Oh -- and a "hint" on how to use the streaming quote page. In the morning when you fire up the Web, open the streaming quote page first, then minimize it and open another browser to use for your information gathering. That way, the quotes page will continuously run in the background and will pull in quote updates for you throughout the day -- all you have to do then is "maximize" the page from the tiles at the bottom of your screen for a quick check of the quotes.)
All the quotes you see on profarmer.com are from the electronic trade. That's where at least 80% of the volume takes place in ag market trade.
Top Stories: All of your Pro Farmer editors are responsible for this section of profarmer.com. And while it's "just" another news feed... this one is different. We really don't mind if our news feed is updated with one or 100 new headlines each day. What we really do care about is the quality of the news on profarmer.com. The news you see on profarmer.com really matters -- or it won't be on our site. And the news comes with a twist. The top of news stories is just that... news. But, at the bottom of the item one of the Pro Farmer editors might add a note to explain why this news is important and what it might mean to the markets. It's news with analysis.
Weather: There is a lot of weather on profarmer.com... too much to detail it all. But I will mention the interactive radar at the bottom of the home page. This is the coolest radar map! After you click on the map, hold the hand of your mouse over your hometown and roll the "roller" on your mouse up -- it will zoom right in on wherever you're pointing. And it gets tight... some of you might even be able to find a fence row of yours! (Just kidding... but it does get tight!) Roll the "roller" down, and it widens the view.
That's a lot of Member benefits! Check all this stuff out. If you are already a Pro Farmer Member, you'll be getting your password and ID from us very soon so you can maintain access to the site. If you're not a Member, our "Classic" (subscription to the weekly Pro Farmer newsletter) Membership starts at $189 per year for 52 weekly newsletters and full access to profarmer.com. (More information on all Pro Farmer services.)