Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Cotton!

Published on: 07:24AM Oct 10, 2019


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Due to popular demand we have added cotton futures to our daily Grain Express!


Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn futures gave back some ground yesterday as producers looked to reduce risk ahead of this morning's WASDE report. Corn production estimates range from 13.446-13.833 billion bushels. Harvested Acres estimates come in from 80.80-82.02 million acres. Yield estimates range from 166.0-168.7 bushels per acre. Estimates for export sales come in from 500,000-800,000 metric tons. Once we get past the report, all eyes will turn back to weather/frost concerns.

Technicals: The market tried but failed near 398-401, which is psychologically significant but also represents the 38.2 retracement and the 200-day moving average. If we get a friendly/neutral report from the USDA today, we could see that taken out and the market run towards our more significant pocket from 412 ¾-417 ¼. This represents the 50% retracement, or the middle of the range from contract highs to contract lows. It also represents he breakdown point from the August 12th USDA report, the 100-day moving average is also nearby.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 398-401***, 412 ¾-417 ¼****

Support: 392 ¾-394***, 377-381 ½ ****, 363-366***


Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: Soybeans caught a bid early yesterday morning on the back of news that China would be open to a partial deal, for those paying attention at home, this wasn’t really new news. Later in the evening there were reports that trade talks in Washington had broken down and Chinese delegates would be leaving a day early. This jawboning and smoke blowing have been a common theme and will likely continue until we get closer to the election. Expectations for export sales come in from 1,300,000-1,800,000 metric tons. Traders are anxiously awaiting this morning’s USDA report, out at 11am CST. The range of estimates for harvested acres is 74.8-75.9 million acres. The range of estimates for yield is 46.8-48.2 bushels per acre. Minutes after the report, attention will shift back to weather as concerns of frost/snow loom.

Technicals: Despite yesterday’s ugly reversal, the market looks pretty darn constructive. The trend of higher lows followed by higher highs remains intact and bulls have the advantage until we start seeing prices close back below $9.00. If the USDA releases a friendly report, we could see the market run towards 936 ½-938 ¾. Above that resistance pocket is the June high of 948. First meaningful support today comes in from 908-910 ¼.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 936 ½-938 ¾***, 948-950****

Support: 920-924**, 899-906 ¾ ****, 879 ½-882 ¾***


Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: December Chicago wheat finished the day near unchanged as the market struggled to find new news to break it out above technical resistance. Estimates for export sales range from 300,000-600,000 metric tons. All eyes will be on this morning’s USDA report, most of that attention on corn and beans which could have a spillover effect on wheat.

Technicals: Chicago wheat futures continue to linger in our resistance pocket from 500-506 ¼, this pocket represents the psychologically significant $5.00 handle, the breakdown point from the August 12th USDA report, along with the 100 and 200 day moving average. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above here, perhaps we see the market continue to run towards 525. If the bulls cannot achieve a conviction breakout, we could see prices retreat towards the bottom end of the recent range, the mid 480’s.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 500-506 ¼****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 483-486 ¾***, 476 ¼****, 469 ½-470**


Kansas City Wheat (December)

Technicals: Kansas City wheat managed to close above our pivot pocket which bodes well for the bull camp. If the market can defend this pocket, we could see short covering continue to lift prices, our next significant resistance pocket doesn’t come in until 428-432 ¾. This pocket represents previous support from early August and the breakdown point from the August 12th USDA report.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 428-432 ¾****

Pivot: 409-411

Support: 397-400***, 380*


Cotton (December)

Fundamentals: Due to popular demand, we bring you Cotton! Cotton was able to get a bid yesterday on the back of rumors that China was open to a partial trade deal, some of that optimism dissipated by the early evening as it was reported that Chinese delegates would be leaving a day early. Expectations for U.S. production range from 21.30-22.00 million. Ending stock estimates range from 6.65-7.4 million. Money flow has been constructive over the last month so the bull camp has a slight edge, today’s report will set the tone going forward.

Technicals: The bull camp is on the verge of forming a trend of higher lows and higher highs, today’s USDA report could be the catalyst they need to reverse the 6-month bearish trend. First resistance comes in from....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.