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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Bean traders are wondering if the bullish reaction to the "weather story" in Argentine was slightly premature. Yes, the temps are hot, but it looks as if good rainfall and cooler temps are in the forecast. Meaning the warm, dry weather might have been a blessing for the Argentine farmers who needed to get more of their crop planted. Lets also not forget the early Brazilian bean harvest will be kicking off in just a couple of weeks. There has also been several major logistical improvements made since last year in a effort to better expedite the exporting of soybeans. Remember, last year the Brazilian's need to replenish their domestic supplies of soy so a large portion of the early beans coming out of the field wen directly to the crushers (who were paying a premium). This year thats not the case therefore I suspect the majority of the early beans will go directly to the ports. Anyway you slice it, I simply see nothing coming out of South America that is currently helping to support new-crop soybean prices. Here at home we also have some bearish longer-term concerns as US producers plan on planting more acres and the USDA might come out on Jan 10th and raise their old-crop yield estimate??? As you can tell I am starting to backpedal a bit on my old-crop bullish soybean slant. Producers need to maintain hedges on ALL remaining bushels with a price floor at or above $13.00. My final two cash-sale price targets remain at......be patient! Click here for my daily grain comments.....
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