Trade to Digest Recent News...
Nov 15, 2013
As for today, traders will first be digesting the most recent export sales data (which was strong for corn, ok for soybean, and weak for wheat), followed by the NOPA crush numbers and the latest 2014 acreage outlook by Informa. Remember, in Informa's last report they seemed to be looking for about a 3.6 million acre reduction in corn for next year and about a 7.3 million acre increase in soy acres. I know many analyst and traders are questioning this big of shift, but I am going to side with Informa on this one. I think more US producers are going to be smart and try and shift more corn acres to soybeans. Especially, if we can somehow keep the Feb averages high enough to provide us with a good insurance level. I just have a hard time seeing DEC14 corn during the month of Feb having a chance to be very attractive. Soybeans, on the other hand, may have somewhat of a fighting chance during the month of Feb.
Obviously, a lot will depend on the South American weather between now and then, but this is just my hunch. I actually suspect both new-crop prices to move lower, but farmers will want to choose the lesser of two evils, and use the downstroke as a much needed rotational year. Basically, a chance for some of the corn-on-corn folks to give a few fields a much needed break. CLICK HERE for my daily report.