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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Corn harvest is starting to work its way north as we are now getting reports in the office form producers in parts of Missouri and Illinois. There is some obvious variability from field to field, especially in regard to moisture levels (anywhere from 10% to 30% moisture). But yield however seems to be consistently "better" than anticipated. Several sources in the trade are now sighting the 2004 record crop year as a possible comparison. If you recall this was the year the USDA raised their final yield by just over 11 bushels per acre in the reports following their August estimate. This is also the year the low in corn wasn't posted until early-December. Keep in mind during the record crop year of 2009 we posted our lows in early-September. From a producers standpoint, many of the folks I've been talking to are wanting to see corn and soybean prices bottom out between now and October. They really don't seem to care how low they push it, because for many this will allow them to collect a bit more Federal crop insurance. I'm afraid the timing of the lows will depend a lot on the approach taken by the USDA. If they decide to once again be conservative in raising their yield estimate in the upcoming Sept 11th report, then we may continue slowly bleeding to death. On the flip side if they took a more drastic approach and pushed the yield up closer to 175 bpa the knee-jerk reaction might be another -$0.50 cent break to the downside, then the pain is essentially over. I hate to say it, but this might just be one of the few times many producers will be hoping to see the USDA "over-estimate" yield. From a "technical" perspective the trade continues to consolidate and the recent low of $3.58 vs. the DEC14 contract still remains nearby support. CLICK HERE for my daily report....
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