The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Corn traders continue to contemplate acreage numbers, in particular how much will ultimately get "planted." My best guess as we sit here today is somewhere between 7 to 8 million acres of corn are still not in the ground as of yet. In the end 3 to 5 million corn acres may simply NOT get planted. Most suspect those in the central corn belt will continue to plant until mid-June, while others have already given up hope. Because of this, several analyst are already dropping their planted acreage estimates to between 93 and 94 million acres vs. the current USDA estimate of 97.3 million acres.
Ultimately, depending on how you want to do the math and how creative you are with the balance sheets, you are still looking at a very sizable carry. That is "IF" the growing season plays out with no major weather related hiccups. Something we haven't seen in the past few years. I personally believe there is a much greater chance for corn yields to suffer than I do bean yields. Producers continue to tell me how hard is it to keep up with the nitrogen losses, leaching and side dressing. With this in mind producers need to continue being patient with their marketing program and temporarily pausing makes the most sense. Those who need to get caught up (to around 45-55% sold) should do so with prices still above $5.50, but beyond that level I remain hesitant.
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