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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybeans bears are talking about the fact old-crop beans have given back $1.00 per bushel since the end of May. The question now that the "roll" is over for most...what happens next? With crushers thought to have ample coverage for the next month or perhaps even a bit longer and the cash market not being overly strong, it might be tough for the JUL14 contract to gain a ton of upward momentum, especially nearby. Moral of the story, the crushers seem to have beans, the exporters don't really need the beans and now US DDGS are backing up into the pipeline because of the cancelations and recent ban from China. My thoughts are we may have the occasional knee jerk to the upside, but a massive blow-off top towards $16.00, like so many "tech" traders have been projecting, seems more and more far fetched. If we are to get a big bounce higher in old-crop my hunch is it doesn't come until early to mid-July. As for new-crop, many players are talking about the possibility of a 10-15% correction from the Spring highs. If you use the $12.79 Spring peak then you can conclude a 10-15% setback would put you in the $10.85 to $11.50 range. My point is, don't be oblivious to the fact we could still perhaps shave another $0.75 to $1.50 off new-crop prices before seeing any type of real sustained upside turnaround or major bounce back towards higher ground. CLICK HERE for my daily report....
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