Fundamentals: December corn futures took another dive lower yesterday as money-flow continues to pile in on the sell side. Export inspections came in at 637,397 metric tons, within the range of expectations but 58% lower, year over year. Yesterday afternoon’s weekly Crop Progress report showed that harvest is 76% complete, slightly behind expectations and well behind the five-year average, 92%. This is the third slowest pace since records have been collected (1981), only 1992 and 2009 were slower. There are some areas that may not get harvest out of the way until after the new year, making final production numbers in January more like a Pin the Tail on the Donkey game. December option expiration is this Friday, looking at the open interest it appears that the 370 strike could offer support to the market.
Technicals: The market is officially trading into our next support pocket; we have had that defined as 366-368 ¼. This pocket represents the low end of the range in August that eventually failed on September 3rd. After making contract lows and rallying back in the middle of September, this pocket again represented technical support. This is a MUST hold pocket on a closing basis, a failure here could......Sign up for your FREE trial!
Fundamentals: Soybean futures rolled back over yesterday on the back of headlines that suggested China was just going to wait it out. We’ve been suggesting this for the better part of the last year and a half; is anyone shocked? We think that China has the leverage and the U.S. could make concessions to sign a deal and claim a victory closer to election time. Export inspections came in at 1,533,000 metric tons, above the top end of expectations, putting us 12% higher, year over year. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that harvest is 91% complete, inline with expectations and just 4% behind the 5-year average.
Technicals: The market failed against our pivot pocket yesterday, 919 ½-922, then retreated towards our 4-star support pocket which held again. We have had that defined as 909 ½-913. The bulls MUST defend this pocket on a closing basis. A failure to do so would...Sign up for your FREE trial!
Chicago Wheat (December)
Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures were the bright spot in yesterdays trade, rallying higher on what was likely more technical than fundamental. Export inspections came in at 449,304 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Crop Progress showed that winter wheat planting is 95% complete with a rating of 52% good/excellent.
Technicals: 4-star technical support was tested and held perfectly yesterday; we have defined that pocket as 496 ¼-500 ¾. This pocket represents the psychologically significant $5.00 handle, as well as the 50, 100, and 200 day moving average and several other previously important price points. Resistance remains intact from...Sign up for your FREE trial!
Kansas City Wheat (December)
Technicals: Kansas City wheat futures tripped stops below trendline support but quickly recovered, closing above our 4-star support pocket from 415-418 ¾. The bulls must continue to defend this pocket on a closing basis, a failure to do so would neutralize our bullish tilt. First resistance today comes in from...Sign up for your FREE trial!
Fundamentals: Please note that we have moved to the March contract. Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report showed cotton harvest is 68% complete, this is 2% ahead of the 5-year average pace.
Technicals: December cotton futures rolled over yesterday, trading within a stones throw of our technical support pocket...Sign up for your FREE trial!
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