Daily Grain & Cotton Commentary (11.7.19)

Published on: 08:13AM Nov 07, 2019

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Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn futures worked lower yesterday on broad based selling in the grain sector, spurred by headlines that suggested the Phase-1 signing would be pushed back to December (was anyone really expecting anything to get done?). In the overnight session there were reports that the US and China have agreed to roll back tariffs, this provided some strength. The jawboning is beyond exhausting at this point. Export sales this morning came in at 487,900 metric tons, down 11% from last week but still 15% above the 4-week average. If South Americas bins are starting to run dry, we could start to see export demand in the states pick up in the coming months. Tomorrow’s WASDE report is the big-ticket item, early estimates are yields to be near 167.2 bushels per acre, down 1.2 from the previous report. Production estimates are coming in near 13.604 billion bushels, down from 13.779 in last month’s report.

Technicals: The market worked to the lower end of our support pocket; we have defined that as 377. This represents the breakout point from the September 30th quarterly stocks report, support from the October 10th USDA report, a key retracement, and the 50-day moving average. This is a MUST hold area to round out the week, a failure to hold ground here could....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

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Soybeans (January)

Fundamentals: The market softened up yesterday on the delay of a potential Phase-1 trade deal. The market has tried to claw back some of those losses this morning on headlines that the US and China have come to an agreement to roll back tariffs. The market has grown tired of the constant jawboning and positive spin, which can be seen in price action, beans rallied all of 3-5 cents on the headline. Export sales this morning came in at 1,807,400 metric tons, 41% above the 4-week average. Most of the attention will be on tomorrow’s WASDE report, out at 11am CT. Early estimates for yield come in near 46.6 bushels per acre, down from 46.9 in the previous report. Production is estimated to be at 3.512 billion bushels, down from the 3.550 in last month’s report.

Technicals: The markets failure against our pivot pocket earlier in the week has brought prices back towards our technical support pocket, 921-928 ½. A close below here would....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

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Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 360,600 metric tons, down 27% from last week and 14% below the 4-week average. Tomorrow’s WASDE report is the big-ticket item, earl estimates are for US ending stocks to be near 1.030 billion bushels, down from 1.043 in last month’s report. World ending stocks estimates range from 285.1-288.5 million metric tons.

Technicals: The market shot higher yesterday but failed to hold on to those gains through the close, finishing the day right near our pivot pocket at 517 ¼. If the bulls can defend this pocket, we could see a run back towards....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

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Kansas City Wheat (December)

Technicals: The market struggled to find buyers above the 100-day moving average near 430, keeping things in check. The bulls still have the advantage and so long as they can continue to defend technical support, we expect to see....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

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Cotton (December)

Fundamentals: Positive trade headlines have helped the overnight and early morning trade. Weekly export sales came in at 164,500 RB, up 52% from last week and up 2% from the 4-week average.

Technicals: Our 4-star technical support pocket managed to hold; we have had that defined as 62.91-63.39. We noted that “If you have a bullish bias on cotton, this pocket is one to consider buying. A break and close below this pocket would....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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