Daily Grain & Cotton Commentary (1.23.20)

Published on: 07:54AM Jan 23, 2020
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Corn (March)

Fundamentals: March corn futures were little changed yesterday, with little new news hitting the wires. Due to the Holiday on Monday, export sales are pushed back to tomorrow morning. As noted for the last week, we believe option expiration will continue to keep a lid on the market at 390, where majority of the open interest is.

Technicals: We wish we had something new to say, but the market is sideways which leaves levels and our overall thesis intact. As mentioned in the fundamental section, we believe option expiration will keep a lid on the market going into tomorrow. However, once we get through option expiration, we feel we could see the market chew through resistance. If this plays out with conviction/volume, we could see that trigger a bigger short covering rally, potentially taking us back above the psychologically $4.00 handle.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 390 ½-392***, 407 ¾-411 ¾****

Pivot: 383-385

Support: 375-377 ¾***, 365-365 ¾****

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Feel free to contact Oliver with any questions or comments

Call or Text: 312-837-3938

Email: [email protected]

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Soybeans (March)

Fundamentals: Soybeans are continuing to bleed lower on the lack of new bullish headlines. Due to the Holiday on Monday, export sales are pushed back to tomorrow morning. Weather in South America has been mostly friendly which has added a wet towel to the market.

Technicals: Yesterday’s slow grind lower was not a good sign for the bull camp and that has bled into spillover weakness in the overnight/early morning trade. 912-916 represents the gap from December 12th and 13th, this will be the pivot pocket the bulls need to get back out above today. Next support comes in from 902-905 ¾, this represents the December 12th lows and the 50% retracement from the contract lows to the double top highs from October. We think that this represents a buying opportunity on the first test, but you will want to see a springboard reaction, not lingering prices.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 920-922 ¾***, 933 ¾-937 ¼***

Pivot: 912-916

Support: 902-905 ¾****

 

Chicago Wheat (March)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures had a wicked reversal yesterday and if you’re looking for a fundamental reason for it you can stop, because you’re not going to find one. Due to the Holiday on Monday, export sales are pushed back to tomorrow morning. We have been leaning on the short side of Chicago wheat and proven to be wrong as of late, but still believe we will see process subside from these levels.

Technicals: Yesterday’s reversal was bearish in nature, but today’s price action will confirm or reject it. If the bears can find follow through on the floor open, break and close below 573 ½ (previous contract highs), we could see long liquidation from the funds.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 598-601 ¾***

Pivot: 585

Support: 573 ½-578 ¾***, 554 ½-557 ¼***

 

Kansas City Wheat (March)

Technicals: Kansas City wheat futures posted a double top against last weeks highs and reversed into the afternoon session. That weakness has spilled over into the early morning trade with the market threatening our pivot pocket from 488 ½-490 ½. A break and close below here opens the door for selling to take us back to 470-471 ¾. If you want to be long, you want to be patient in the near term. We are giving our bias a slightly bearish tilt for the first time in what seems like a lifetime.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 498-500**, 509 ¾-513***

Pivot: 488 ½-490 ½

Support: 470-471 ¾****, 453 ¾-458 ¾***

 

Cotton (March)

Technicals: March cotton futures saw a massive reversal yesterday, trading in a range 2.59. The volatility is shaking out weak hands on both sides, which keeps us happily Neutral for the time being. 70.00-70.50 is the battleground area. Consecutive closes above or below will set the tone for the intermediate term trade.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 72.34-72.80****

Pivot: 70.00-70.50

Support: 66.93-67.13***, 62.81-63.73***

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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