Daily Grain Market Outlook (8.6.20)

Published on: 08:17AM Aug 06, 2020

Watch us on RFD-TV, today at 12:45 pm CT! Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn futures stalled out yesterday as new sellers seem absent at new contract lows. Yesterday’s weekly ethanol production dropped 27,000 barrels per day, inventories were left unchanged. Net sales of 101,600 MT for 2019/2020 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2020/2021, net sales of 2,600,000 MT primarily for China (1,937,000 MT).

Technicals: Corn futures continue to defend our final support pocket, 320-322. Below this is “uncharted territory”, making it awfully hard to find meaningful support. The RSI (relative strength index) is at 38.95, still above what we would consider being “oversold”. The sentiment is about as bearish as we can remember, if everyone thinks the same thing it is possible that it is mostly reflected in the price. Does that mean we will see a huge relief rally? No, it means the value in selling here (even if we go lower) seems minimal.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 349 ¼-350***, 360-363 ½****

Pivot: 330-332 ¼

Support: 320-322**

 

Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: Soybean futures traded lower yesterday which appeared to be primarily technical selling. The USDA announced another flash sale yesterday, 192,000 metric tons to china for 2020/2021. The thoughts of a bigger crop is limiting the upside you’d expect from a string of flash sales. There is also some concern that some of these could turn into cancellations down the road. Net sales of 345,200 MT for 2019/2020 were up 72 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2020/2021, net sales of 1,405,000 MT were primarily for China (474,000 MT).

Technicals: The market closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since June 1st, which could open the door for an extension down to our 4-star support pocket, 866 ¼-873. This pocket represents a key retracement, the 100-day moving average, and other previously important price points. We would consider buying this pocket on the first test.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 905 ½-911 ½****

Pivot: 886 ¾-889 ¾ Support:

866 ¼-873****

 

Chicago Wheat (September)

Fundamentals: Net sales of 605,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Technicals: Wheat futures stabilized yesterday, but the bears remain in control and the objective of 496 ½-500 remains intact. Consecutive closes above our pivot pocket would neutralize our bias, 517 ½-523.

Bias: Bearish Previous Session Bias: Bearish

Resistance: 532-535 ½***, 546 ¼-551 ¾*** Pivot: 517 ½-523 Support: 496 ½-500***

 

 

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Oliver Sloup

Vice President

312-837-3938

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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