APR Cattle expires 99.92; Hogs re-test contract highs

Published on: 17:33PM Apr 30, 2010

                                               
866.433.4371     
 
 
04-27-10 
Live Cattle
Feeder Cattle
Lean Hogs
LCM0
94.22
+0.35
FCK0
112.80
+0.27
LHM0
86.32
+2.50
LCQ0
93.52
+0.20
FCQ0
116.07
+0.25
LHN0
86.22
+2.32
LCV0
95.65
+0.20
FCU0
115.90
+0.52
LHQ0
86.60
+2.50
 
Index
113.44
+0.23
Index
84.82
+0.67
 
Live Cattle: 
·         TX trades 98.00 light volume
·         Beef @ noon Ch 170.22 (+0.26) Se 167.11 (+0.09)
·         April expired 99.92 (+0.95)
·         Good wkly slaughter; Poor Wkly. Est. box movement
·          DOW closes dn 158.71-will this be a factor Monday?
 
Live cattle settled higher off month end fund support. April LC expired 99.92 up 0.95. The favorable basis should keep fed sales active. Total production and slaughter will improve as demand peaks in May. I realize this is not new stuff.   IA trade is often a good indicator of available finished cattle supply. IA premium narrowed as dress traded this week was 156.00-157.00, or $1-$2.00 over the southern plains and $1.00 discount to NE. When it trades a premium to TX and NE as it has for several weeks, this is usually a good sign for higher prices. This week we saw the premium narrow; please keep your sales current going forward. I mention exports continue to roll along? Yes they are. Don’t forget finish weights are still below yr ago levels. Over all, available feeder supply will remain tight vs. available feed yard capacity. 
 
Boxed Beef Cutout Values
Choice
Select
Loads
170.21
+0.25
167.08
+0.06
164
Choice/Select spread settled at +3.13
Slaughter
Wk Ago
Yr Ago
WTD
Yr Ago
128,000
114,000
127,000
660,000
666,000
 
 
 Feeder Cattle: 
 
  • Funds adding Longs to Sept FC.
  • Corn moves higher- corn basis breaks hard- make sure your needs are covered
 
This week’s auctions went very well most areas traded 2.00- 5.00 higher and are expected to remain strong lending into first half of May. Inquiry is good. Movement is good and as expected, conversion performance has been excellent. This is a key point, as we look ahead to available numbers in Apr and May. Cash feeders should hold 110-111.00 area. 
 
Lean Hogs: 
 
Direct Live Trade Wtd Avg
National
67.59
+1.38
6,582
IA/MINN
68.06
+1.89
4,069
W. Cornbelt
67.89
+1.85
4,273
E. Cornbelt
67.02
+0.51
2,309

 
Pork Carcass Cutout Values
 
 
Loads
89.96
-0.24
44.25
Slaughter
Wk Ago
Yr Ago
WTD
Yr Ago
399,000
402,000
373,000
2,028,000
2,046,000

 
  • Aggressive Month end Fund Buying
  • Feeder Pigs up 1.50-2.00 (#10/52.97, #40/80.07). New high for the yr.
  • Cutout 89.96 v. 55.68 yr ago (+ 34.28)
  • May hogs Expire 5/14
 
 Hogs- settle sharply higher off month end fund support. Next week’s slaughter is historically a light week, this will be important to watch as an indicator of available supply vs. packer slaughter needs. Seasonally Packer margins often begin to trend into the red as summer demand improves v. supply. The first few weeks slaughter in May will be important to monitor. Packer margins are good…will demand continue to support higher cutout? Unchanged to higher weights, lower slaughter expectations and “cheap corn” might lead one to believe producers are holding hogs; are they?
 
 
Best regards,
Paul Nelson
 
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