New Contract Highs for CME Hogs; IA Live trades 101.00, 161.00 dressed

Published on: 20:21PM Apr 21, 2010
(866) 433-4371         [email protected]
 
04-21-10 
Live Cattle
Feeder Cattle
Lean Hogs
 LCM0
95.45
+0.85
FCJ0
112.05
+0.40
LHM0
87.07
+1.57
LCQ0
94.05
+1.07
FCK0
112.55
+0.40
LHN0
87.60
+1.77
LCV0
96.17
+0.75
FCQ0
116.20
+0.80
LHQ0
86.92
+1.52
 
Index
112.74
-0.11
Index
80.02
+1.12
 
Live Cattle: 
 
  • ON Feed Report         Averg 
    • On Feed           97.1    96.3-98.6
    • Placed             106.6   102.2-111.0
    • Marketed         104.9   101.7-106.5
  • IA trades 101.00 Live; 161.00 Dressed
 
Live cattle settled higher off expected higher cash trade. Box Beef @ noon was a touch higher which may be an early indication retail price resistance. In general we believe beef prices should remain strong for the coming week and baring any major changes from outside markets should be supportive to the April futures (exp 4/30). Keep in mind that the cash market has traded premium to the futures board and this will make any large futures break difficult until we see cash weakness. Historically, basis levels are at their best now into May and then back off going into the summer. By June basis levels are typically negative $1-2. Midday boxed beef was higher Ch @168.09 up 0.06 and Se 165.11 up 0.08
 
 
Boxed Beef Cutout Values
Choice
Select
Loads
167.10
+0.20
164.71
+0.49
194
Choice/Select spread settled at +2.39
Slaughter
Wk Ago
Yr Ago
WTD
Yr Ago
128,000
122,000
125,000
381,000
380,000

 
 Feeder Cattle: 
Feeders settled 40-80 higher but near session lows as fund roll over from May to Aug remains the feature approaching month end. Last trading day for Apr is Thurs. 4-29. Friday’s On Feed report guesses of 97.1 and low slaughter weights show keep most yards active bidders below 111.00. Near perfect grazing conditions will continue to stretch out this season’s feeder run into late May. However, a move to $110-111 should not be ruled out if corn works higher and differed fed cattle prices cheapen even further. 
 
Lean Hogs: 
 
Direct hog Live markets report.
National average at $65.11 + 1.52
IA/So.MN $64.70 +0.49
Western cornbelt $64.55 + 0.59
Eastern cornbelt $67.22 +5.15
 
·         Loins up 101.41 +1.37; Hams 79.19 +1.88
·         Active fund buying
 
Lean hogs sharply higher in active trade pushing to new contract highs.  Domestic demand remains good. The question remains have we topped out? Traditionally tops are made in mid-May; have the funds stopped buying? Open interest is up 96,652 from Oct 1, 2009. Near-by futures are @ par with cut out (first time for this move). IA/MN B&G weights are outstanding. Exports are good; but Mexico has been our best buyer and has traditionally been very sensitive to price. Packer demand remains good. MY Guess- I think we still have a mini move higher leading into month end.
 
 
Pork Carcass Cutout Values
 
 
Loads
88.41
+1.37
33.25
Slaughter
Wk Ago
Yr Ago
WTD
Yr Ago
408,000
406,000
425,000
1,226,000
1,272,000
 
 
Get More From EHedger. Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.htmlfor a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more. Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.  
 
Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger 
 
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.
 
 
EHedger LLC
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1520A
Chicago, IL 60604
866-433-4371 (Toll Free)