The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.
CBOT markets had another leg down today which means December corn is trading at new lows for the move. November soybeans closed 13 ¾ cents lower at $11.92 ½, September wheat 6 ¼ cents lower at $6.58, and December corn 12 cents lower at $4.67.
The weekly sales report showed over a million bushels of new crop corn booked for export. Even with the stronger than expected sales corn made new lows. The weakness may have been exacerbated as stop loss orders were triggered. Soybeans broke below $12.00 again but were not able to make new lows for 2013. The next target is $12.86 ¼ which is the April 2013 low. Look for stop orders below this level (see chart below).
After the market closed FC Stone released their first yield estimates for corn and soybeans for the 2013 marketing year. They have corn yield pegged at 157.0 and total corn production at 13.993 billion bushels. They have soybean yield at 43.0 and total production at 3.309 billion. Overall we would say this is more bearish for soybeans than corn.
We are now trading well below the major moving averages which could translate to some short covering support along the way down. The two week forecast looks mostly favorable for crop development but at some point we may need a wider coverage of rain to secure the next leg down. If you need to catch up on sales or would like a second opinion of your current marketing plan, please contact EHedger for a complimentary trial of the AgYield.com software. Have a great weekend!