EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11/7/12
Nov 07, 2012
Corn and wheat were higher while soybeans closed lower. December Chicago Wheat led the way settling 17 cents higher at $8.94. December corn closed 3 ¼ cents higher at $7.44 ¼ and January soybeans 8 ½ cents lower at $15.07.
Now that the election is over the markets are readjusting for the outcome. Equities were hit hard today with the Dow Jones trading as much as 350 points lower on the day. Crude oil was trading 4.50 lower on the day at one point! Grains detached themselves from the outsides and started the day rallying off the lows.
Ethanol production was higher and ethanol stocks were down much more than expected. This was positive for corn prices and added to the support. With the report out on Friday we aren’t expecting any major position changes on Thursday besides the DB and Goldman Rolls.
US wheat prices have become more competitive in the world market as supply concerns are mounting. Wheat was the strongest grain contract today and has helped corn prices stay afloat. Friday’s USDA report should give the market a little more direction in the wheat market. Next wheat resistance level for December is $9.09.
Corn bounced off its support level again. We are still expecting corn to remain range bound for now. The January reports will be the next major indicator for trend change when we get an actual count of supply.
Soybeans briefly broke the $15.00 level again early in the session. The gap from the 4th of July is at $14.74 ¼. The market still may try to fill that level which I have indicated on the chart below. The bulls are liquidating over concerns of higher production on Friday’s report. In our opinion the demand is still strong enough to keep soybeans supported even with a national average yield of 38.7.
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