EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12-28-2011
Dec 28, 2011
The corn market lead the way on Wednesday as March corn settled the session 9 ¼ higher at $6.42 ½. March Chicago wheat was also higher finishing the day 6 ½ higher at $6.51. The soybean market was sharply lower to open the day before settling 1 ½ lower at $11.98 ¼.
For the second consecutive day corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled above their respective 50 day moving averages. It seems as though most of the trade is focused on continued discussion of hot and dry weather throughout Argentina. This afternoon’s mid-day run called for continued dryness in Argentina for the next week or so. Brazil is forecasted to receive scattered showers starting this weekend into early next week. The long term weather models have been conflicting. In our opinion it is difficult to predict weather much past a week so we will certainly be monitoring daily changes that occur. As is the case with any weather market, quick swings can be taken advantage of for producers that are looking to catch up on sales.
The outside markets were very weak throughout the entire grain session as the Dow was down over 120 points and crude oil was trading almost $2.00 lower. It feels like a lot of the trade is winding down as we head into the end of the year and the thin volume should only get thinner as we wrap up the rest of the week. Weekly export sales are delayed until Friday due to the Christmas holiday on Monday. I will release the export sales estimates in tomorrow’s afternoon commentary. This Friday is the last trading day for December live cattle and also the first notice day January grain futures. Please contact your broker to re-position any hedges involving these contracts.
The next major USDA report will be released January 12th at 7:30am. This report will give involve grain stock, supply/demand and production, and also winter wheat seedings. We will be releasing our estimates for this report in the next week or so. Our major suggestion is that everyone gets in touch with their broker to go over our current recommendations and also be sure that AMMO is updated so that we are well positioned for this critical report.
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