EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 8/16/12
Aug 16, 2012
Grains finished mixed on Thursday’s afternoon close. December wheat held the most support closing 15 ½ cents higher at $8.81 ¾. December corn closed 3 ½ cents higher at $8.07 ½ while November soybeans settled 9 ¼ cents lower at $16.25 ¼.
The Weekly Export Sales Report showed strong soybean sales but corn and wheat both fell below the estimated range. Corn above $8 has obviously taken a toll on the export pace which has restricted its upside. At the same time the price can’t afford to fall very far and create a bunch of demand until we know more about the crop size. For this reason we think we are stuck in a holding pattern between $7.50 and $8.50 until we get further into harvest.
While corn is in a supply market we believe soybeans are in a demand market. Crush continues to outpace estimates. Exports have been strong. At the same time the recent rains have the market wondering if bean yields have improved. In our opinion once we get past the supply question soybeans will have a bigger story than corn.
Friday afternoon we will have the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report as well as Cattle on Feed. The market is estimating On-Feed to be 100.7, Placed at 91.4, and Marketed at 101.6.
Please contact EHedger at 866-433-4371 if you would like to try our proprietary farm management software called AMMO. To learn more please visit www.ammoag.com. Thanks and have a great rest of the week!
Chart: December Corn
Chart: November Soybeans
Chart: November Soybeans 2013/December Corn 2013 Ratio
(Supports corn planting again but can the ratio stay this low for very long?)
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