Greg Wagner's Bullet Points for CME Group Analyst Outlook Forum - USDA Crop Reports TODAY 2:30pm CT
Apr 09, 2013
The CME Group will host a pre-crop report briefing today at 2:30 pm CT on which I will be a panelist. Media and market participants are welcome to join in the briefing via a live webcast. A short Q & A session will be included. The briefing via webcast can be accessed at:
Following USDA’s release of the Grain Stocks report on March 28th trade expectations are for end stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat to be increased for the 2012/13 marketing year. Revisions in Argentine and Brazilian soybean and corn production are also anticipated.
Additionally, the Prospective Plantings report of March 28th provided the trade with a baseline in which to construct production scenarios for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
• What potential price reaction can be expected if U.S. and global stocks/production numbers do not vary substantially from trade expectations? And what if below — or — if above trade expectations?
• At what point does the market discount known old crop fundamentals?
• Price implications of increased beginning stock levels on the 2013/14 crop marketing year?
• Can dynamic soybean sales & shipment pace be sustained as availability of record South American supplies to end-users quickly ramp-up?
• The old-crop soy complex — soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil — are residing at critical long-term price support levels. Can these levels hold and a meaningful price recovery be expected?
• Dramatic $1/bu. price declines following the March 28th Grain Stocks report — are prices now at levels in which demand is uncovered?
• U.S. winter wheat crop condition ratings are abysmal in HRW, better in SRW — how far can the market rally on reduced production prospects?
• As the trades attention pivots to weather for the row crops – what is the likelihood of row crop yields being realized?
• And, if so, the price implications.
These are a few of the items that we’d like to address this afternoon. Welcome to the discussion!
Below are trade expectations for USDA’s April WASDE which will be released tomorrow Wednesday, April 10 at 11:00 am CT.