A late start... and a negative bean residual?
Apr 12, 2013
From The Editor
April 12, 2013
Hello Pro Farmer Members!
Okay... we can say the 2013 growing season is off to a late start now. Corn planting isn't late (unless you are in some soggy Gulf State areas), but the start of the growing season is late. As we get through the next two weeks of "overtime winter," we'll be looking at May before most Midwest farmers turn a wheel to get the season started.
Obviously, we're into the time of the year that we'll be paying more attention to growing conditions in upcoming issues of Pro Farmer. But I just want to leave the growing conditions with this thought: The drought isn't broken yet. Conditions are much improved, but the drought isn't broken. Let me offer this as evidence. In April 2013, we've received about 2.6 inches of rain (so far). In April 2012, we had about 3.95 inches of rain - so we're still nearly an inch and a half short of the rainfall total we had at the start of the 2012 drought. Weirder things have happened...
And speaking of weirder things... USDA used some weird math to get to a steady soybean carryover in the April Supply & Demand Report this week. USDA increased estimated old-crop bean crush by 20 million bu. and increased estimated exports by 5 million bu. for a 25-million-bu. jump in REAL soybean use. To offset that, USDA cut estimated residual use by 25 million bushels. I've been watching the marketing and S&D Reports for 25 years and I'm still not exactly sure what residual "use" is. In the cotton balance sheet, it's called "unaccounted use," which seems to better explain what's going on.
Basically, when USDA's World Board lines up the NASS grain stocks data against documented use (crush and exports), there are some unavoidable conflicts. Those conflicts are resolved by adjusting residual "use." Of course, there have been times when USDA showed us a negative residual use estimate for soybeans... and negative use actually adds to total supply, supporting carryover.
Basically, what big changes in residual soybean use (and feed & residual use in corn and wheat) means is that NASS's grain stocks estimates don't "jive" with NASS's production estimates. Don't be surprised if we see a negative soybean residual at some point over the next couple of months, which would indicate NASS will eventually adjust the size of the 2012 bean crop.
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That's it for now...
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