First look at 2014-15 corn, beans and wheat
Oct 18, 2013
Hello Pro Farmer Members!
As promised, we include our first look at the 2014-15 marketing year supply & demand balance sheets for corn, soybeans and wheat in this week's newsletter.
Do not write any of the estimates "in stone." All we're doing with this early look at the next growing season is trying to show the trends we're picking up from across the country.
Corn acres: Down from this year's plantings. Lower-than-year-ago revenue opportunities on 2014-crop corn will have growers looking to cut production costs, and going with lower-cost soybeans seems to be a popular trend at this time. We've also heard talk that some cotton growers will be looking to get back into the fiber business in 2014. If southern farmers liquidated all of their cotton equipment, they won't likely come back to cotton. But, if they've got a cotton picker (or access to one), they'll likely look at the opportunity to grow some 80-cent cotton instead of $4.50 corn in 2014.
Informa Economics, Inc., reportedly is looking for a 4.3-million-acre drop in corn plantings next year. That's got to be at the downside edge of corn acreage expectations for 2014. A drop to 91.7 million corn acres seems a bit extreme, but corn growers have become much more willing (and capable) to respond to market forces, so depending on what happens with 2014-crop corn prices between now and February (maybe March) will determine just how "low" corn acres fall.
Bean acres: Of course, if corn acres are down, bean acres are expected to be up. There is a growing desire to get closer to a 50-50 corn-bean crop mix for many Midwest growers. We don't see many southern growers backing off of bean production with the ability to capture some huge late-year premiums ahead of the Midwest harvest the past couple of years, which will hold up bean acres in 2014, as well.
Informa reportedly is looking for a 7-million-acre increase in bean plantings next year. Again, that's got to be at the upside edge of bean acreage expectations for 2014. An increase to 83.9 million bean acres seems a bit extreme.
Wheat acres: We expect an increase in wheat seedings next year with the underlying fundamentals of the wheat market turning more bullish. With problems in the Black Sea supply and with the flow of wheat from Argentina, there may be some incentive in the spring wheat market this spring to push acres even higher than we're expecting right now. Improved soil moisture conditions in areas of the hard red winter wheat region should also attract a few more plantings. We also see more soft red plantings stealing acres from corn this year, increasing the bean acre count as eastern Belt growers double crop beans.
Informa reportedly is looking for a 1.6-million-acre increase in all wheat seedings. That would put total wheat acres at 57.7 million, which is in line with our expectations at this time.
Cotton acres: As mentioned, we se some acres moving back to cotton in 2014.
Informa reportedly is looking for plantings of 11.2 million acres next year.
Carryovers: We see 2014-15 corn carryover up from this year, bean carryover up from this year and wheat carryover down a touch from this year.
That's it for now...
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