AG TIME A Rally Opportunity by John Walsh
Sep 20, 2018
Apparently the funds are buying beans because they are cheap? Whatever that means. As I have said, a nice rally in beans should be welcomed. The beans at levels on the board if, and I say if, they were hedged months ago, equate to a tidy profit with the one time govt payment (1.65 reported). This rally in my opinion needs to be utilized for next years crop. A nov 2019 board above $9.00 will look good in my opinion. The global growth will continue this season as well as the global carry. There are some outside influences to consider. The Canadian canola supplies are estimated to be a record. This equates to exportable oil and meal. In addition, given the US discount to SA, the Canadians are buying US beans to crush. Again, more exportable protein. The world is awash in beans with a huge capacity to crush. This will continue to to expand as long as the tariff stays.
The Corn finally had a nice up day. There is some field talk that the yields are variable. This is something I have spoken about. There are private analysts now that are reducing the overall production numbers. This remains to be seen of course, but if true, will help a friendly case for a few months at least. Then the Global production becomes important. There are some short term weather concerns. Some rain which could make harvest tested a bit. Let's see what happens
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