AG TIME G Meeting by John Walsh

Published on: 02:21AM Dec 01, 2018

This weekend should be market moving one way or the other. Sunday evening could be interesting. President Trump will be meeting with President Xi. It is my thought that a window of opportunity will present itself. Trump, I believe, wants a deal. Xi I believe needs a deal but doesn't want to look like he needs one. If a verbal agreement is struck, it could offer a rally in beans. It is my belief that any rallies need to be sold. It is important to look at the 2019 prices as well. Nov 2019 at 940. Looks rich to me. The weather overall in SA remains good. The Brazilian is making progress. Actually record pace. This will allow beans to move as early as January. It is important to note that Chinese bean stocks are very high at present. There is a general slowing of imports due to this. In addition ASW (swine fever) continues to expand slowly. There is some concern that it is being under reported. Time will tell. In addition, the black sea region is producing more and more rapeseed and oilseeds in general. This will offer more competition in 2019, and for years to come.

 This window will remain open for a bit here. The next questions will be if the US acreage in spring sees a large increase. I am not yet convinced. The Corn Bean ratio will play a big part. Also, perhaps the late crop, if field work has been done to support spring corn acres. I remain committed that corn will gain on soy into the new year. Quantify your risk.

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