The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Walsh Trading Commercial Hedging Service is dedicated to providing timely, relevant and quality information. Tim Hannagan, our Senior Grain Analyst provides a weekly Grain Report. Tim has been ranked the #1 grain analyst in the United States per Reuters and Bloomberg for his most accurate price predictions for soybeans and corn in the years 2011 and 2012. Additionally, Mike Bauer, our Senior Livestock Analyst and Ben DiCostanzo, our Senior Technical Analyst provide frequent insights into the Livestock market. Finally, Sean Lusk and John Weyer, Co-Directors of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services provide a variety of insights into the Grain markets.
The funds were buyers today on "turn around Tuesday." The markets made an attempt to rebound after yesterday's trouncing. A couple factors to watch. The dollar continues to exhibit strength. Considering the record tax intake to the Treasury, the economic outlook continues to impress. This should continue to fuel strength in the US dollar. This will impact the AG sector in the long run and needs to be considered. The market is marking time to Thursday and the USDA report. It is my belief the USDA will continue to add to the carry both domestically and add back to the global numbers. It is interesting to note that the Chinese are lowering their estimated soy imports by 1 million metric tons. This is the first contraction in approximately 15 years. This is the beginning perhaps of what I have been suggesting - that the Chinese economy is stagnating at best, perhaps contracting. There are a few things I am watching. First the corn vs beans, which has been a trade that has started a potential long term trend. This has been working. QUANTIFY YOUR RISK. No guarantees it will continue. But, I like the fundamentals and will wait for the Thursday report. I am watching the meal for a long term trend change. I am also watching the Crush Margins for a long term trend change. I say watching because there are no long term indicators yet.
The Corn rallied a bit. The fundamentals are intact and my belief for Corn remains the same as last week.
To discuss long term opportunities in the market either give me a call or drop me an email. I attempt to identify long term trading and hedging opportunities. It is my belief that the opportunities are in long term thinking. 800-993-5449 or firstname.lastname@example.org
" MAKE NO SMALL PLANS, THEY HAVE NO MAGIC TO STIR MEN'S BLOOD " - DANIEL BURNHAM, ARCHITECT, PLANNER OF CITIES
John J. Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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