AG TIME Looking for Some Changes by John Walsh
Sep 24, 2018
The soy mixed today. The oil remains strong, meal did struggle. There are some thoughts regarding this. The macro picture is cheap beans. The US being the cheapest. We are actually allowing everyone, most importantly, Argentina to buy all the US beans they want then crush them and sell the meal. This ultimately will create a bearish protein scenario, in my opinion. Then we don't hear much regarding African flu in China. However, it is reported breeding stock is down 4.8% year on year in China. This again will create a scenario that is net reductions for protein demand. It is my question when will this start to matter to the market in a broader sense? I remain bearish protein. The Veg oils are attempting to bottom. It is important to note that the vegoil price is far enough below crude that it should promote bio fuel use. These are important macro scenarios.
The corn is getting some follow through. I look for this to continue. The weather remains a bit wet. The field reports are not as high as some would hope. The US remains the cheapest corn in the world. These factors could push us to higher levels in the near term.
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