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The soy was led higher by meal. The President said he was working on some deals with China and suspended further tariff action. A deal will be forthcoming at some point. But, what does it really mean to the market? My long term thoughts remain on the bear side. There are many things going on. The US carry has grown to record proportions. This is not due to the trade war. It is due to overproduction. The global numbers could approach 110 mmt carry. That is all while global demand (China) is declining. These are long term shifts. In reading the publication Oil World, they see an oversupplied protein market going forward. There are a record amount of meals being produced. The US will lose market share to the stiff competition. There are record US meal inventories, even with high demand, for a long time. Chinese protein demand is in decline. This while alternative meals are available at record amounts. It also seems that veg oil could attempt to place a low. The bean oil has struggled as the palm oil price has been in sincere decline. This may be ending. If so, this could produce a shift away from crushing for meal to a scenario where the oil leads the crush. This has not been the case for many years. Let’s see what happens.
The corn and feedgrains in general are a doldrum market. The corn is supported by reasonable fundamentals. However, the concern over the next season acreage is cited by many as a pause for concern. The demand for corn is good, the carry is friendly. These are constant. If it won’t work higher then patience is required. I have little else to say on feedgrains.
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” SHALLOW MEN BELIEVE IN LUCK, STRONG MEN BELIEVE IN CAUSE AND EFFECT ” RALPH WALDO EMERSON
most farmers are still in denial about the long term of soy markets as I listen to the coffee shop talk.