AG TIME Move The Calendar Up by John Walsh
Sep 19, 2018
The soy is getting a bounce today. There are a couple reasons this could be transpiring. There may be some bottom picking. The market has broken a lot. Another scenario could be a thought that the China US relations could find some common ground. Food for thought. Let's look at some real life scenarios playing out. The Brazilian planting is rolling. By field accounts well above the average pace. This will do a couple things. First, the harvest will be assumed early. Second, if the season goes well, the Brazilian will have an early harvest thus boosting export availability for the US. The second global fundamental I am watching is the Ukraine sunflowerseed crop which is being harvested at a record pace. The projected yield is up as much as 20% yr on yr. This makes sunflower meal available in quantity. A guess who will take that. The prize goes to China. There is no shortage of protein in the world. The meal market is a market that won't converge. The basis levels do not indicate a tightness. The availability does not indicate a tightness. The perception has yet to change. I am talking my opinion. But also the facts of the cash market. The global production of soy, if it is early, will create a real burden on soy and protein. A rally in beans is certainly welcome. 2019 beans above $9.00 deserve a look at as hedging opportunity.
The feedgrains have been covered all week and month. You know where I stand. Let's see.
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